Saturday, February 07, 2009

I am back!

Got back last Monday, believe or not, it was the first time that I actually felt that the vacation is too long :P. Obviously was happy to see all the family members and sure enjoyed lots of good food! But it was a bummer missing the entire NFL playoff, especially the Superbowl which said to be one of the all time best. On the other hand, my Saints disappointed me again, wasting a great performance by Drew Brees was just terrible, now that they got a good defensive coordinator, I am once again superbowlish on my Saints, hehe, just never learn!

I did some trades during the vacation, mostly quick trades (all options) from the short side and enjoyed pretty good gains. Also spent time to really think about my TA system, and I thought I have cleared up a lot of issues and possibly leaped to a higher level, we shall see about that :P

Some observations and thoughts on the market:

1. TA wise, the intermediate trend is poised to turn up, led by the techs. The long term trend is still solidly down, and the talk of "bottom is in" is still premature until the major indices close above their Jan.09 highs to say the least.

2. FA wise, the ongoing rally is once again largely based on hopes not fundamentals, the deterioration of the later is actually still accelerating, which as the results will likely to put a ceiling on the counter trend rally.

3. Aside for the black holes in the US/world financial system, the biggest wild card right now is China (my home land). After spending nearly 2 months there, my conclusion is that China is at a very critical stage right now: if China can decelerate the slow-down or even hold off further sliding of its economy/housing market in next 3-6 months, the hope of its stabilization, which would really help the global economy, could become a reality. If on the other hand that it fails to do so, I am afraid that economy/stock markets of China and the rest of the world could suffer a catastrophic breakdown in the second half of 2009, and along the way pushing the eventual recovery to 2010/2011 at the earliest.

4. My personal take on the rosy scenario is 50/50 at most, which is why at this point I have been holding off any initiation of long time positions from the long side in US stocks.

I notice that there was an average couple dozens of visits to my blog every day during my hiatus, which was unexpected and I sure appreciate that! I am pretty sure that you won't be disappointed reading my future blogs, in fact, I ask you to get ready to help with my beer fund with the profits that you earn based on my trading calls, LOL!

Still unwinding down and got a lot at hands, but will try my best to start regular posting soon.

One quick question: overall, have you won or lost since early Dec.?

Best!

8 comments:

fortune8 said...

Welcome back!

Did not know you were from China.

flyingwabbit said...

thanks fortune8 and sorry for the under-disclosure :)

Roger said...

wow, you are back!! What does your TA system focus on? like what indicators will you look at?

-firecs

EZboy said...

Welcome back ! We really missed your posts ;)

flyingwabbit said...

Roger:
My TA system focuses mostly on MA, MACD, RSI-2, stochastic, candle formation and support/resistance. I think I am finally figuring out how to listen to each instrument to hear the whole symphony, well, almost there :P

EZboy: Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Test

GregoryO said...

Welcome back Flying Wabbit. I use the same tech tools (doesn't everybody?) but I am increasingly intrigued by intra-day market breathe indicators such as advance-decline volme and accumulated tick readings. These work best without trending markets. I have not found any good software or live trading sites that cover these. Any ideas would be greatly appreciated.

flyingwabbit said...

Sorry Gregory, I don't know any trading tools that plot intra-day breath indicators, I know pros pay up for such info. On the other hand, you don't need them to do great in DT, just focus on the following indicators:
1. current-day open
2. previous-day close
3. current day hi and lo
4. previous day hi and lo
5. MA10, stochastic, RSI and MACD on 5 min chart
6. important candle formations on 5 min and 60 min charts...
7. MA10 direction on the dayily charts

hehe, it's that simple :P