Friday, November 28, 2008

Happy Holidays!

I have been busy preparing for a long-waited home trip next week that would last for nearly TWO months. All my accounts are back to cash now and which most likely would stay that way till I am back.

As for the market, the major indices might continue trending up to test their weekly MA10 in coming days if the shopping season is not worse than anticipated. I also tend to think that the market could continue its counter trend rally in next 2 or even 3 months, along the way to test their MA50 or even Mid-Oct08 highs. But such rally is likely to be choppy as it pins mostly not on the fundamentals but on the hope that the Obama administration would quickly turn the economy around, which obviously will be crushed. Looking into the longer time frame, the market is now pricing in the possibility that the global economy bottoms in late 2009 or early 2010, if this scenario gains traction, we might see the ultimate bottom in summer 2009.

Finally, a word of caution: for the next 2 months, regardless you trade long or short, you will be better off if you are not greedy and quickly lock in your gains because the market will not have any strong and lasting trend, one way or the other. The only things you can count on are volatility and choppiness.

If I don't get chance to post again till I am back, here is my best wish to everyone for a great holiday season!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

have a safe trip! :-)

-Leo

firecs said...

Happy Holiday and enjoy your TWO months vacation!!1