Friday, November 28, 2008

Happy Holidays!

I have been busy preparing for a long-waited home trip next week that would last for nearly TWO months. All my accounts are back to cash now and which most likely would stay that way till I am back.

As for the market, the major indices might continue trending up to test their weekly MA10 in coming days if the shopping season is not worse than anticipated. I also tend to think that the market could continue its counter trend rally in next 2 or even 3 months, along the way to test their MA50 or even Mid-Oct08 highs. But such rally is likely to be choppy as it pins mostly not on the fundamentals but on the hope that the Obama administration would quickly turn the economy around, which obviously will be crushed. Looking into the longer time frame, the market is now pricing in the possibility that the global economy bottoms in late 2009 or early 2010, if this scenario gains traction, we might see the ultimate bottom in summer 2009.

Finally, a word of caution: for the next 2 months, regardless you trade long or short, you will be better off if you are not greedy and quickly lock in your gains because the market will not have any strong and lasting trend, one way or the other. The only things you can count on are volatility and choppiness.

If I don't get chance to post again till I am back, here is my best wish to everyone for a great holiday season!

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Does this scare the crap out of you?

I got a chance to watch the clip below regarding US national debt, and while I did not shit my pants, it did send chills down to my spine and made me started to think about the years yet to come.

This could be the best 30 min you can spend.

Could someone tell me this is really some liberal/conservative scare tactics, or some deeply flawed junk, or indeed the Sword of Damocles high above this nation?

What you don't know cannot kill you, can it?

Sunday, November 09, 2008

A Momentary Lapse of Reason or FEAR?

Biting my fingernails all afternoon last Thursday, but finally decided to move all my 401/403 accounts back into the index fund in the closing minutes instead of waiting for a possible Friday morning gap-down. So far so good.

I have gone through all kinds of charts on all major time frames over the weekend, and they all point to a fledgling counter trend rally, well, maybe except the key financial such as C and GS, whose charts gave me a chilling sensation. I will keep eyes on last week's lows and may consider to pull out at least 2/3 of the funds if the major indices close solidly below those lows. The current initial profit target is around MA50s of the major indices on their daily charts.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Yes we can!

What an incredible, transforming and historical night it was last night!

Besides listening to the gracious and the uplifting post-election speeches last night, I paid close attentions to the reactions of the ordinary people on the TV, especially their facial expressions. What I saw once again reaffirms my belief that USA is one of the greatest nations on the earth. As for the American people, sure there are scumbags, jerks, idiots, nuts, and fanatics among them, but overall, they are the most admirable folks in this world with their passionate, genuine, and kindhearted spirits. Their unyielding pursuit of dreams, unwavering optimism, and above all, their innocence make them truly the seeds of the promising future of the mankind, and there will be many fruitful seasons to come!

Yes we can!

Now, where was I? Oh, yeah, back to aggressively shorting both calls and puts for the NOV OE. I shorted a bunch of FSLR NOV195 calls yesterday, made a bundle despite of exiting too early. I am hoping for some sizable pullbacks for the rest of this week, especially this Friday, before re-positioning my retirement accounts for a multi-week counter trend rally.

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Rally on?

While my long term view of the market remains firmly bearish, my bias on the short and intermediate term trend is turning bullish. The chance is decent that the recent low will be held throughout 2008. As we are moving within 3 weeks of the NOV OE, my primary strategy for the coming days will continue to be shorting naked calls and puts. In any case, I will try to hold back fire until the election is over.