Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Straddle this!

Is it me or anyone else start to get this feeling that bulls are becoming increasingly invincible with just about every passing day? If you do feel this way, you might want to tighten-up the stop-loss of any long positions you have.
I must say I am impressed by what bulls did today, which was best seen in FNM action. I start to think that a leaking ship, even if the leaking is very bad, does not necessarily doom the crew, IF the tide (liquidity) is high and fast, the crew still has the hope to reach the promised land, but to have a good chance, they would either need to plug all the leaking holes before too late OR the tide must keep rising and forwarding. Now, which way will this story go?

Noticed that most of ER so far this week turned out non-event with less than 5% move, which, when combined with collapsing IV, would doom most of long straddle plays. So why not reverse the thinking and play the short straddle on them? I mean, after all, most ER produce less than 5% post-ER movement, right? Hmm, you think I am on something here? OK, that's it folks, I need to do some research on this now....

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