Monday, December 17, 2007

Short note -- Monday, Dec. 17, 2007

About the weekly trading calls

Sorry that I did not get time to do it this past weekend, and I probably won't be able to until after the holiday season -- will spend time with several friends who will be visiting during the holidays.

On the market

In short, the market has been acting pretty much like what I predicted in the Dec. 8 weekly calls. As the major indices and many stocks approach oversold on both daily and 60 min charts, I expect their initial tests of the previous lows likely to be successful, even triggering some Ho-Ho-Ho rebounds:P But in my view, last week's Fed action and maybe more importantly, the inflation signs, are fundamentally changing the psyche of this lasting bull market. Even though it might still be a bit too early to build up short positions, it is high time to reduce long positions on every rebound from here on.

On Ameritrade's StrategyDesk

I have been back-testing some trading strategies, and when I get chance I will post some of the main findings here.

Link for RSS subscription
I figure some readers might like a RSS subscription link here, so I decide not to wait for the to formally roll out this feature -- I just add it using a free service from Let me know if you have any problems/coments.

Until I resume the regular weekly trading calls, I will try my best to at least post some short notes like this a couple of times per week if not more.

Happy holiday and best wishes!


Saturday, December 08, 2007

Weekly Swing Trading Calls--Dec. 10-14, 2007

On the market – Searching for the golden compass

With now the US government joining the subprime mess rescue forces, bulls continued their march and closed week with all major indices gaining 1.6% or more and reclaimed some key technical levels along the way.

Weekly charts for all 3 indices are mildly bullish with indicators point out to further up side move; daily charts are even more bullish as they charged into overbought region on increasing positive momentum. The only thing that bears may take into comfort is that the rally came in on significantly reduced volumes, signaling that many major players are not ready to put on their bull costume and join the parade, which makes perfect sense as the market prepares for next Tues FOMC rate decision.

The market has now priced in all the good news
: US Government is on their side, the job growth is not too bad which may help to avoid recession, and FED will cut 25 bp for sure. So what else is left in bulls' tank? A 50 bp cut? possible but less likely with the Nov. employment report we had. Santa? As reliable as the Santa rally has been, without a 50 bp cut, will the mighty Santa be able to help bulls to challenge the double-top formations of almost all 3 indices? And in case the market does get the 50 bp cut, how long the fuel will last?

I think market's reaction to FOMC decision next week will be a telltale sign of the market direction for the coming months. In my view, if the market sell-off hard and falls once again below the key technical levels (SP500 around 1490 and NASDAQ around 2630), a retest of the recent lows will be sure on the way. If the market rallies on light volumes, I myself will start to build up short positions, with some patience and all the respect to the Santa, and get ready for a brand new year!

The bottom line: generally speaking, at this stage of bull cycle, easy money on the long side has been made, but bears are still looking for the gold compass to find out if their time is finally coming.

Weekly Trading Calls

I am going to be brief as I try to spend some time to back-testing some trading strategies using the latest of version of the StrategyDesk.
Many trading calls (notice the word spikes) only apply when the market moves violently following FOMC decision.

1.AAPL – the forbidden fruit, for bears!

Weekly chart: bullish all around, now looking at it, in the past 3 months, it only had 2 losing week!
Daily: solidly broke into new high on increasing momentum; entering overbought region.
60 min: staying in overbought and bulls not worried about..
** SW L1 if it spikes towards key support at 180, 175, and 170, IT=200.

2.COH – current shorted at 37.38

Weekly: the 3 week rebound came to the end, stochastic no long oversold, negative momentum continue to diminish, still solid down trend
Daily: mildly bearish, both volume and momentum are contracting, sellers evident just below MA50.
** for current position, IDS around 38.5, CS just above 38 with a bullish candle, IT=32
** SW S2 if it spikes up on FOMC decision, entry zone 40.8-44, stop just above 44, IT=38.

3.DHI: bottomed out, for now

Weekly: solid up week with solid bullish candle, MACD histogram confirming trend reversal, stochastic points further oversold rebound
Daily: closed above MA50 for the first time since June, bullish bow-tie formation developing
** SW L1, entry zone 12-12.52, IT=15, stop just below 11.7.

Weekly: the bullish engulfing candle formation signals a typical new highpullbackresuming primary up trend setup
Daily: bull rip through key 84 resistance and closed week above MA50.
** SW L1 if it spikes towards key support near 80 and 84 use tight stops, IT=91

** CTT between 81 and 100 using tight stops, bearish bias, keep an eye on MA50, don’t trade the middle range.

** SW S2 if it spikes towards 59, IDS just above 50, CS=MA50.
** SW L3 if it spikes towards key support near 40 and 44, using tight stops, IT=50

There are some bearish divergences, but it is still a solid bullish case no matter how do you look at it.
** SW L2 if it spikes towards key support at 200 and 210 use tight stops, IT=235.
** speculative S3 if it spikes towards 280 with a tight stop, IT=230,

Bullish all around after a much-better-than-expected earning report, but as a part of the retailer sector, there is a ceiling under current macro-eco conditions.
** SW S3, entry zone=53.8-56.5, stop just above 57, IT=48.
** SW L3 if it spikes towards 47, stop just below 46, IT=52

9.LDK: bulls finally came through!
Weekly: super bullish engulfing candle, stochastic ready to rebound out of the deeply-oversold area.
Daily: EMA10/10/30 bow tie formation developing, closed above MA50
** DT L1 if it spikes towards 40, stop just below, IT=45
** SW L1 if it spikes towards 37, stop just below 36, IT=50.

** Currently shorted at 34.38, IDS just above 35, CS above MA50=34.7, IT=31.

11.PFCB: can you say bottom?

Weekly: still a clear-cut bearish case, stochastic suggests further rebound out of the deeply oversold territory.
Daily: 6 consecutive up days and closed just above MA50
** with a down trend like this one, I just don’t trust the true bottom can be formed without re-testing. SW S2 if it spikes towards 30, stop just above 30, IT=26.

12.RIMM: trend reversal developing?
Weekly: MACD histogram crossed below zero line for the first time since late May, signaling the momentum switch which often is followed by trend reversal. Most indicators point to further downside movement. Notice that unlike other big tech stocks such as AAPL, its only had one up week since late Oct, and all down weeks came on good volumes.
Daily: bearish bow-tie formation developing, support near 100 very strong.
** SW S1 if it spikes towards 118, stop just above 120, IT=100.
** DT/SW S1 if it breaks 98, CS just above 100, IDS just above previous day high, consider adding more position if it breaks 96, IT=86,

Weekly: it looks like a resuming primary trend setup, but other indicators may yet to run the bearish course
Daily: 7 straight up days stalled last Friday and closed the week just below MA50 near 99, momentum still on the rise but stochastic is in the overbought area.
** DT S2 with a stop just above 99.11, IT=95
** SW L2 if it spikes towards 91, stop just below 90, IT=100
** SW L2 if it breaks 99, CS near 97, IT=110.

14.STP: refer to FSLR
** SW L1 if it spikes towards 72, stop just below 69, IT=98.

15. FNM:
** SW S1, entry zone=42-48, IDS just above 50, CS above 48, IT=33.

16. FRE:
** SW S1, entry zone=41.8-46, stop just above 47, IT=30

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Weekly Swing Trading Calls--Dec. 3-7,

On the market--Deja Vu all over again?

For a while, it appeared that bears were in firm control as bulls failed to mount any kind of sustainable rebounds despite of the deeply-oversold conditions and the favorable seasonality. Then came the FEDs, who had a change of heart, not only signaled the rate cuts but even went on to say that the irresponsible risk-taking behaviors should not be punished if such punishment will cause recession. Emboldened bulls promptly went on all-out assault, leaving bears dazed and confused.

All major indices scored 2.5% or more gains this week. On weekly charts, all major indicies posted a bullish engulfing candle formation with indicators showing diminishing downside momentum. On the daily charts, all major indices reclaimed MA200 but failed the test of MA50; with indicators show increasing positive momentum.

With market now fully expecting a 25 bp rate cut or even 50 bp if next Friday's Nov. employment report comes in weaker than expected, is this going to be a carbon copy of last Aug's rally? My view? possible but unlikely. Why? First, unlike last Aug, the economy is in worse shape and may well get even worse before getting better; second, unlike last Aug, the room for further rate cuts is simply smaller. Furthermore, the unintended negative impact of rate cuts will not only increase but also show up faster in a material way.

With the above considerations, I view the ongoing rebound as a good opportunity for setting up swing short-on-top trades. The key, however, is patience. Aside from watching key resistance levels of major indices (DOW 13750, NASDAQ 2700-2720, SPY 1490-1500), it is crucial to wait for the rebound to run its course and use previous highs as stop references.

My feeling for the next week is that it is going to be a range-bound market until the Friday's employment report. With the rate cut expectation already baked in, bulls will be hard-pressed for more sizable gain, in fact, presence of sellers were evident this past Friday. Bears, on the other hand, will find it extremely difficult to regain the control as long as the possibility of 50 bp rate cute remaining in the card, let along the bullish seasonality. In a bigger picture, bears are probably holding on to the belief that FED is forced to cut rate because macro-economy outlook is much worse than most expected, and the market just cannot make new highs with such outlook hanging over head, let alone the unpredictable and potentially catastrophe negative impact of further rate cuts.

Count me in that camp, for now.

Weekly Trading Calls:

1. AAPL: Re-loading for the new highs?

Weekly: bullish but weaker momentum
Daily: bullish with increasing momentum, but sells start to come out as it approaches recent high.
60 min: declining out of overbought conditions is running its course.
** SW L2 if it spikes down towards 175/176, stop just below 175, IT=188
** SW L1 if it spikes towards 170, stop just below 169, IT=180

2. ARO: the end of rebound?
Weekly: bearish candle formation along stochastic poised for retreating from the over-bought conditions, but momentum is still positive and strong
Daily: top-looking candle formation, momentum shifting to the down side, indicators point to more slide.
** SW S2, entry zone=26.4-28, stop just above 28.5, IT=23

3. BIDU: onto new highs?
Weekly: evening star candle formation? indicators mostly bullish
Daily:increasing upside momentum, but sells came out after 6-straight up days;
60 min: mildly bearish as over-bought condition works it out.
** SW L2 if it spikes down towards 340/350, stop just below 340, IT=390.
** Speculative SW S3, entry zone=410-420, stop just above 430, IT=330

4. C: Dead cat bouncing?
Weekly: bullish engulfing candle, oversold and diminishing down side momentum
Daily: oversold rebound running the course on increasing positive momentum, but up volumes notably lighter.
** SW S1, entry zone=35.8-37.5, stop just above 38, IT=31

5. COF: what's in your wallet?

Weekly: in oversold region, spinning top candle formation, clear and confirmed down trend
Daily: versold rebound running the course on increasing positive momentum, but sellers are lining up.
60 min: neutral
** SW S2, entry zone=56-59, stop just above 60 or MA50(currently 61.7), IT=50

6. COH: luxury on the run?
Weekly: 3 straight up week on significantly lighter volumes, oversold rebound running the course, negative momentum continues to diminish, clear and confirmed downtrend.
Daily: un-abating positive momentum, approaching overbought, heavy resistance zone ahead.
60 min: mildly bullish.
** SW S1, entry zone=39-40.5, IDS just above 40.5, CS above MA50 with a bullish candle, IT=34.

7. DHI: is the bottom finally in?
Weekly: continuous bullish divergence, heading out of oversold region, again!
Daily: another oversold rebound on the way, but is this finally for real?
60 min: retreating from over-bought
** SW L1=2, entry zone 11-11.5, stop around 10.7, IT=13.5.
** SW DT L1 if it closes above MA50 with bullish candle, IT=15

8. DRYS: smooth sailing again?

Weekly: bullish-engulfing candle with volume following 4 straight down week, indicators still show negative momentum and implications from the precipitous decline.
Daily: powerful oversold rebound, while some indicators suggest more gains, candle formations point out increasing seller activities.
60 min: poised for further retreat from short term overbought conditions.
** SW DT S2, entry zone=98-105, IDS just above 105, CS just above MA50 with bullish candle formation, IT=85.
** SW S1, entry zone 110-120, stop just above 120, IT=95.

9. EDU: learn to profit from volatility!
Weekly: bullish engulfing candle and clear up trend
Daily: oversold rebound seems to more room to go,
** SW L2, entry zone=74-76, stop just below 73.5, IT=84
** Speculative S3, entry zone=87-91, stop just above 92, IT=74

10. EXM - refer to DRYS
** SW S1, entry zone 57-60, stop just above 60, IT=44

11. FMCN: bulls die hard!
Weekly: momentum is on the verge of shifting to the down side, alternate loss/gain week for the past month, the down volumes and candles outsized the up ones.
Daily: oversold rebound may have more room to run
60 min: overbought and staying overbought.
** SW S3, entry zone=58.8-60, stop just above 60.5, IT=52.

12. GRMN: navigating out of woods?

Weekly: bullish rebound, but negative momentum may slow its upside move
Daily: increasing positive momentum, approaching overbought, able to stay above MA50, but failing to clear resistance just below 109.
60 min: mildly bearish.
** SW S2, entry zone=115-117, stop just above 117, IT=100.

13. NVDA: turn of the tide?

Weekly: long shadow highlighted selling pressures near key resistance, increasing down side momentum, still ways to go before being oversold
Daily: Oversold rebound may have ended with Friday's big black bearish candle.
60 min: very bearish but in deep oversold region
** SW S1, entry zone1 32.8-34, stop just above 34.2, IT=29.

14. RIMM: up trend ending?

Weekly: momentum is poised to shift to the downside, downside volumes outpaced up volumes in recent weeks, stochastic points to further slide,
Daily: the overbought rebound came to an abrupt end with Friday's big black bearish candle
60 min: bearish but in oversold region
** SW S2, entry zone=116-120, stop just above 120, IT=100

15. TBSI: Refer to DRYS

** SW S2, entry zone 45-50, IDS just above 50, CS above MA50 with a bullish candle, IT=36.

16. VMW: on the second wind?
Weekly: bullish-engulfing candle but diminishing momentum, will it be able to test the classical evening-star top formation?
Daily: oversold rebound well on the way, but candles on both Thurs/Fri show increasing selling pressures.
60 min: mildly bearish, overbought decline is emerging
** SW S1, entry zone=99-104, stop just above 105.5, IT=80.

17. X: when steel meets stiff resistance!
Weekly: indicators mostly point to more slide, bow-tie formation developing
Daily: oversold rebound running its course, increasing up momentum, but sellers step in around MA50 MA200 convergences (around 101.4) on the Friday.
60 min: poised for overbought decline.
** SW DT S2, entry zone=99-101.5, stop just above 102, IT for DT=93, IT for SW=87.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Weekly Swing Trading Calls -- Nov. 19-23, 2007

On the market -- stalemate, for now!

Bulls were able to significantly slow down the tremendous bears attack and ended week with a slight gain, while bears managed to thwart any serious rebounds.

On the weekly charts, all major indices posted more or less of a spinning top candle formation, indicative of indecision on both parties. Most indicators still favor more down side movement.

On the daily charts, both DOW/SP500 closed below EMA200, while NASDAQ successfully tested and closed above EMA200. The lows on Nov. 12 seem to firming up for all major indices, while downside momentum is diminishing.

On the 30/60 min charts, DIA/SPY/QQQQ all show signs of oversold rebound.

Overall, the bears and bulls are in a temporary stalemate right now. For bears to break through the impasse, relying on the carry-over negative momentum is no longer enough, instead, it will need more significant bad news on the macro-economy level, especially the solid evidences of consumers' faltering spending. For bulls, however, things are a bit easier: as long as there are no significant negative headlines, the favorable seasonability (Turkey rally and Santa Rally) may help them to steadily recover some of the lost ground.

My feeling for the next week is that while it will be a overall range-bound market between the Nov. 12 low and Nov. 14 high, the bias is mildly bullish. Therefore, I will continue the intra-day or very short swing trades from both sides using those key S/R as stop/entry references. Since it will be a non-trending market with high volatility in coming days, taking quick profits is very important.

Weekly Trading Calls:

1. AAPL: short-term rebound on the way!
Weekly: doji candle, still a clear up trend, indicators mostly bullish.
Daily: signs of temporary floor around 160, indicators slightly bearish
30/60 min: solid signs of more over-sold rebound.
** DT/SW L2, entry zone=159-165, IT=175
** DT S3 if it spikes towards 175/180 use tight stops.

2. AKAM: more pullback before rebounding?
Weekly: second losing week on light and diminishing volumes, indicators mildly bullish.
Daily: several successful tests of EMA50, but indicators point to possibly more pullback before rebounding
30/60 min: reluctant oversold rebound, slightly bearish
** DT/SW L2, entry zone=33-34.5, IT=38.

3. BIDU: A falling leader?

Weekly: neutral, second losing week on high volume, noticeably weaker than QQQQ/NASDAQ, repeated bullish calls from analysts could not stop the slide,
Daily: bearish, un-abating negative momentum as every rebound was sold down,
30/60 min: struggling to mount any over-sold rebound, test of Nov. 12 low around 298 is still in the card.
** SW CTT if it spikes towards key S/R levels: 298, 333, 360 use tight stops, don't trade the middle ranges.
** Consider DT/SW S2 if it breaks and closes below 294, IT=270?

4. CRM: Stellar Q report emboldens bull rampage!

Weekly: very bullish all around
Daily: every bullish with extreme bullish candle, there is no way that bulls will be satisfied with anything less than new highs.
30/60 min: bullish and in overbought regions, but if it is indeed trending to new highs, expect overbought to become even more overbought.
** SW L1, entry zone=55-57.1, stop just below 55, IT=65
** DT L1, entry zone=56-57.1, stop just below 56, or when it breaks 57.6, IT=62.

5. DRYS: running into a dry ground?
Weekly: 3rd straight down week on diminishing but still relatively high volumes, indicators favor further down side movement, MACD histogram is poised to become negative for the first time in months.
Daily: persistently high negative momentum kept it near over-sold region,
30/60 min: signs of oversold rebound but lacking strength.
** DT/SW S2 if it spikes toward key resistances around 95, 100, and 105 with tight stops.
** DT/SW L3, entry zone=82-85.11, stop just below 81, IT=92.

6. EXM: trouble water ahead?
Weekly: like DRYS but even weaker as it is on the verge of trend-reversal confirmation, very bearish
Daily: descending candles on persistent negative momentum, is another leg down in a short order?
30/60 min: stuck in oversold with all bearish indicators favor more oversold time.
** DT S1 break-down play if it breaks 43.5, stop just above 44, IT=40.
** SW S2, entry zone=48-52, stop just above 53, IT=44.

7. FSLR: indeed the first of solar!

Weekly: increasing bullish momentum, uptrend to continue
Daily: Friday's action conclude the pullback.
30/60 min: rebound in full swing, overbought conditions does not mean imminent pullback if it is trending up.
** DT L2, entry zone 200-205, IT=230, stop just below 200,
** SW L1, entry zone 185-201, IT=250, stop just below 185.

8. GRMN: have the fundamentals changed for better now?
Weekly: overall still mildly bearish, but will the bullish engulfing candle embolden the bulls?
Daily: diminishing negative momentum, sellers still abundant near key resistances.
30/60 min: poised for overbought pullback.
** CTT at key S/R: around 93.5, 102 and 109, don't trade the mid-region.

9. RIMM: from studs to suds?

Weekly: second weekly loss on increasing volume, indicators favor more down side move, but long shadows on the candle may define the short-term trading range.
Daily: Friday's high volume reversal may have lay down a short-term bottom, but un-abating negative momentum may cap any significant rebound.
30/60 min: over-sold rebound is running its course
** SW/DT S2 if it spikes towards 118, stop just above 120, IT=105

10. TBSI: the reverse of a fortune?

Weekly: 4th straight weekly loss with acceleration to the down side, extreme Marubozu candle along with other indicators point to further loss.
Daily: oversold becomes more oversold as it clearly trends down
30/60 min: clearly down-trend suppressed any over-sold rebound.
** DT/SW S1 if it spikes towards key resistance around 47, 52 and 58.
** DT/SW speculative L3 if it spikes down towards 35, with stop just below 34.5, IT=45.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Weekly Trading Calls -- Nov. 12-16, 2007

On the Market:

For the first time in nearly three months, bears took solid control and pounded bulls to the submission. Another round of confession by financial heavyweights pushed the major indices through the key support levels early in the week which emboldened the bears to launch an all-out attack on the tech bulls who quickly entered a panic retreat mode. For the week, all major indices suffered huge loss with NASDAQ led way for a 6.5% drop.

On the weekly charts, the bearish-engulfing Marubozu candle of Oct. 14 week finally got a big follow-through, especially in NASDAQ which posted an ominous evening star formation. The momentum is now solidly on the negative side and on the rise for both SP500 and DOW. The bearish candle formations and many other indicators clearly point out the likely further downside movement in the coming days.

On the daily charts, things are even more bearish as both SP500/DOW closed below MA200 while NASDAQ firmly below EMA50. Even though the 3-day sell-off pushed all indicies near oversold region, the high volumes and increasing negative momentum suggest more losses on the way. As the major indices seem to on its way to test their early Aug. lows, there are some key support levels that are critical to bulls: NASDAQ-2490 to 2520, around 2580; SP500-around 1450 and 1430; DOW-around 13000 and 12850.

The big question right now is if the current huge decline is a repeat of the late July/early Aug epic. and thus represents a perfect buy-on-dip opportunity for the ever so trustful Santa rally OR this is the beginning of the end of the multi-year up trend? The problem for the bearish case is that as long as the major indices succeed the test of previous low, bulls are far from done. The problem for the bullish case is that it was Fed's rate cuts stop carnage and drove market higher in Aug. now with the Fed already cut twice without a lot of room to go further, what factors are going to halt and reverse the powerful free-fall? Right now, I am leaning to the bearish case but I will keep an open mind. I don't expect a lot of subprime headlines next week as the financial stocks show signs of stabilization, and I will pay close attention to retail sale data and find out if retail sector can rebound a bit here.

On the Trading:

After several key mental mistakes that burnt big holes in my account, I finally came to face the reality and did something I should've done several years ago by implementing an external supervision mechanism that is aimed to stop any train-wreck acts in track. Things are working fine so far as I posted a 20% again for the week. However, I still need to be more realistic about the profit expectation and more awareness and control in risks. For the next few weeks, I will set a daily target of 1% gain, and weekly at 6%.

Given the current market conditions, I will try to avoid swing long trades while actively look for swing short setups. I will continue to focus on day-trading from both side and take advantage of the volatility.

Weekly Trading Calls:

1. AAPL: bears took out their multi-month frustration on bulls the big way. Weekly has a evening star candle formation with other indicators turning bearish, but it is still a clear uptrend stock. Daily seems to form a towering-top formation, closed weekly right at the EMA50, but with all the things running for bears, further slide is likely; 30/60 min charts bearish but in oversold area.
** DT-S1 if it approaches key resistances at 168, 174/175 or 179/180 with a stop just above those levels.
** DT-L2 if it spikes towards 153 with a stop just below.
** SW-L1, entry zone=145-149, stop just below 145, IT=153.

2. AKAM: Low volume and mild retreat in the midst of tech melt-down. Weekly: trend-reversal still intact; Daily: first test of EMA50 was successful but it may drop more if NASDAQ accelerates to the downside.
** SW-L1, entry zone=32-33.11, IDS just below 31.7, CS just below 33, IT=40.

3. AMZN: Weekly: the risking negative momentum is on the verge of confirming a trend reversal; Daily: Friday's broke-down spells more losses for bulls; 30/60 min chart: bearish but in oversold area.
** DT/SW S1 on top if it spikes towards 83/84 with a stop just above 84;
** DT L2 if it spikes towards 70/71 with a stop just below 70,

4. BIDU (focus stock): the unrelenting bulls along with momo traders got crushed. Weekly: still a clear up trend but the bearish engulfing candle is ominous for bulls; Daily: more bearish with negative momentum on the rise; 30/60 min: bearish with signs of stabilization.
** DT-S2 if it spikes towards 360 with a stop just above, IT=330.
** SW-S1 if it spikes towards 400 with a stop just above 410, IT=360
** DT-L2 if it spikes towards 300, 315, 324 use tight stops.

5. CROX: Weekly: bearish with negative momentum on the rise; Daily: bearish, oversold and Friday's action show signs of temporary bottom; 30/60 min: mildly bullish
** DT-L2 if it spikes towards 35 with a stop just below 34.8, IT=40
** DT-S1 if it spikes towards 44 with a stop just above, IT=40,
** SW-S1 if it spikes towards 46/47 with a stop just above 48, IT=40.

6. CTRP: earning report drove it to new high. Weekly: bullish all around; Daily: bullish.
** DT L1 if it spikes towards 55.55 with a tight stop, IT=59
** DT L1 if it spikes towards 54 with a stop just below, IT=56
** SW L1 if it spikes towards 51, stop just below 50, IT=54.

7. DHI: bearish all around, BUT bullish divergences developing on both daily/weekly charts; 30/60 min in overbought region. Is it time to buy the bottom here?
** SW speculative L3, entry zone=11.41-11.81, IDS just below 11, IT=13.4

8. DRYS (focus stock, currently long near 98 during the closing moment on Friday):
Stellar earning report failed to buoyant the stock in a sea of red. Weekly: diminishing up momentum with indicators favor more down side move; Daily: closed below MA50 for the first time since Aug, negative momentum on the rise, but candle formations and volumes in the last two sessions show signs of stabilization; 30/60 min: in oversold region with signs of rebounding and temporary bottom at 95. I closely watched level II and tape last Friday, and there were signs of big boys buying at the current level; it would have closed above 99 had market not sold off that hard in the last 30 min, and bulls should take into comfort that even with such sell-off it closed above its open. I suspect that it will rebound as long as the BDI indice continues to hold/rise from the current level. I shorted it on the closing moments on the Friday before, resulting in a 7+ points gain, and now looking for a sizable gain from the long side.
** For the holding position: stop if breaks 95, if it fails to break 100 on Monday, consider exit at least half of the position, if it breaks 100, it will be almost certain to test 105 if not 108.
** DT S2 if it spikes towards 105, 108, 112, and 120 with tight stops.
** DT S3 if it breaks 95, but must take quick profit, IT=92, stop just above 96.
** DT L3 if it spikes towards 90, with a stop just below, IT=95.

9. GOOG: even strongest bulls cannot withstand the furor of the long frustrated bears. Weekly: clearly up trend but a bearish-engulfing candle on all-time high volume could spell more pullback; Daily: bearish with increasing negative momentum;
** DT L2 if it spikes towards 640, stop just below 636, IT=660
** SW L2,entry zone=600-611, stop just below 600, IT=660.

10. GRMN: even the best GPS failed to navigate it out of a sea of trouble. Weekly: just confirmed the trend reversal, increasing negative momentum points to more loss; Daily: bearish and oversold, stabilized at EMA200,
** DT SW S1 if it spikes towards 95 with a tight stop, IT=83 for SW, 93 for DT.

11. ILMN: Weekly: diminishing up momentum but still clear up trend; Daily: neutral is bullish considering the market conditions.
** DT L1 if it spikes towards 51, stop just below, IT=55
** SW L1, entry zone=46-49.1, IT=55, CS just below 46.

12. ISRG: No bulls can escape bears wrath! Weekly: 2nd down week in a roll, still a very clear bullish case; Daily: increasing negative momentum spells more decline if the major indices fall further.
** SW L1, entry zone 265-271, stop just below 265, IT=300.

13. PFCB: bullish divergence on daily chart plus the modest inside buys stopped bleeding for now, is it time to load it up?
** SW speculative L3, entry zone 27-28, stop just below 27, IT=30.

14. RIMM: see comments on GOOG and AAPL.
** DT L1 if it spikes towards 100 or 106 with tight stops., IT=115.
** SW L1, entry zone 93-95, IT=118

15. SOHU: the post-earning euphoria drown in the red sea. Weekly: bearish-engulfing candle but everything else still bullish; Daily: parabolic bull run squashed by bears but on lighter volumes.
** DT L1 if it spikes towards 50, stop just below, IT=57.
** SW-L1, entry zone=45-46.11, IT=57,

16. SONS: the better than expected earning report powered it up in a falling world. Weekly: trend-reversal confirmed with increasing bullish momentum; mildly bullish but diminishing up momentum; 30/60 min: in overbought region and signs of pullback.
** DT SW L1, entry zone=7-7.21, stop just below 7 for DT, IT=8

17. VMW: the momo traders are no match for pissed-off bears. and I am still pissed off that Ameritrade did not have any shares for short when I was frantically trying it as it was breaking 105, and they still don't have any now. Anyone who has better experiences with different brokerage? Weekly: you cannot get a better morning star formation than this one; Daily: a free-fall with increasing negative momentum.
** DT-S1 if it spikes towards 103, stop just above 105, IT=96,
** SW-S1, entry zone=104-109,stop just above 110, IT=96

18. WFMI: Weekly: momentum turning bearish, huge bearish candle; Daily: broken down below both EMA50/200, negative momentum on the rise.
** DT SW S1 if it spikes towards 46, stop just above, IT=44.5
** SW S1, entry zone 45.8-47, stop just above 47, IT=42
** DT L1 if it spikes towards 40, stop just below, IT=42.

19. WLT:
that good earning report sure has a staying power. Weekly: bullish on increasing momentum; Daily: bullish, a bit overbought, but bulls not backing down.
** SW L1, entry zone=32.5-33.11, stop just below 32, IT=40
** DT L1 if it spikes towards 35, stop just below 34.6, IT=36.

Earning Watch:

1. SINA: report 11/14 AH, will it enjoy a post-earning run like SOHU? overall bullish trend, looking for small entry near 47 before earning. Key level: 42, around 46-47,around 50.2, 55-56, 59.

2. STP: report 11/15 BMO, will it have a report like FSLR? Key levels: around 44,48, 54.8, 62, 75.64.

Saturday, November 03, 2007

Trading Calls-- Nov. 5-9, 2007

On the market:

The market got its rate cut wish and promptly rallied on Weds, but a steep and high volume sell-off pained a less bullish picture for the coming days. Significant divergences among major indices emerged last week as both DOW and SP500 losing over 1.5% while NASDAQ made slight gain. The divergence can be attributed by new concerns in financial sector and continuous strength in tech sector.

On the weekly charts, both DOW and SP500 show the bearish impact of the bearish-engulfing Marubozu candle of Oct. 14 week with signs of more follow-through; the NASDAQ is still very bullish with increasing momentum.

On the daily charts, the bearish-engulfing Marubozu candle resulting from the post rate-cut sell-off significantly dampened the hope that both DOW and SP500 would join NASDAQ in making new highs, furthermore, as DOW/SP500 closed below their EMA50, it seems that they are poised to make a lower low there after making the lower high this week. The rebound on the Friday clearly shows that key support is very much there for both DOW (around 13400) and SP500 (around 1490), and until these supports are broken through, with NASDAQ's strength, the major indices may attempt another rally for new highs.

With rate-cut done and earning reports slowing down, the market is probably going to focus on the financial sector and the health conditions of consumer spending in the coming weeks. Unless the NASDAQ start to come down and DOW/SP500 break the key support levels, the battle between bulls and bears will intensify in the coming days. With that in mind, the best trading strategy right now is probably to open to both long and short trades using key S/R as entry/stop references, and be nimble to take profits, and try to shorten the holding time.

Trading calls

1. AKAM: weekly and daily bullish, 30/60 min neutrual
** DT/SW L1, entry zone=34.5-35.5, CS just below 35, IDS just below 34, IT=40.

2. AKS: weekly posted first real bearish engulfing candle in over a year period, with many indicators point to further downside; daily all bearish; 30/60 min all bearish but with signs of stablization.
** DT/SW S2 on rebound, entry zone=49.9-51.9, stop just above 52, IT=42

3. AMZN: weekly on the verge of confirming the reversal of the long up trend; also bearish in all other time frames.
** SW S1 on rebound, entry zone=89-92, stop just above 92, IT=83.5
** DT S1 if it breaks key support just above 83, IT=79/80.

4. CROX: the post-earning plunge marked the reversal of the fortune for this stock. Bearish all around, but near-term bottom around 44 seems tentative.
** DT S1 on rebound it it stays below 50
** DT L2 if it breaks 50, but be nimble at profit-taking
** SW S1, entry zone 53.8-55, stop just above 56, IT=47.

5. DRYS (focus stock, currently shorted near 113 during the closing moment on Friday):
weekly still bullish but many indicators show developing bearish divergences; daily has several high volume sell-off caused extreme bearish candles seem to confirm the short-term top around 130, downside momentum on the rise and was the first since it Sept break-out; 30/60 min bearish but in over-sold position. Technically, the stock is at a crucial point here, a break of 110 level will almost guaranteed a test of recent lows between 103.46 and 107.75. However, I tend to believe that its first test of EMA50 (currently at 98.6) will be successful.
** for the holding position, CS just above 117, IDS just above 119.5. But I will consider exit the position early during the Monday session if it fails to at least break the 112.5 low for the last two sessions. Will take partial profit if it breaks 110 and spikes down towards 108, and may completely exit if it spikes towards 103, and possible reverse the position near EMA50 with a small initial entry and tight stop.
** DT S2 on rebound, entry zone=117-119, stop just above 120; IT=113
** SW S2 on rebound, entry zone=126-129 stop just above 131.5, IT=113

6. GRMN: the post-earning plunge may mark the reversal of the long up-trend. Weekly chart is confirming the trend reversal; daily also bearish with increasing negative momentum; 30/60 min point to rebound from the oversold area.
** DT/SW S1 on rebound if it spikes toward key resistances around 102/103, around 105, and around 109/110.
** DT S1 if it breaks the key support near 95, IT around 92?

7. SLB: weekly is confirming at least the temporary reversal of the up trend with increasing negative momentum; daily also bearish but shows firming of the short-term bottom near 95; 30/60 min mildly bullish but in overbought region.
** Speculative S3 if it spikes towards 102 or 107 with stops just above, IT=92.

8. SNDK: weekly bearish but negative momentum stalled and some indicators point to more rebound; daily suggests more rebound on the way; 30/60 min all suggest further rebound.
** DT/SW S1 if it spikes towards 47/48, with stop just above 48, IT around 42.

9. TIF: the bad news on the wall street translate into less lavish bonus fuled holiday buying binge at its main store in NYC? Weekly chart on the verge of confirming the trend reversal, bearish indicators point to further downside; daily more bearish with increasing negative momentum.
** DT/SW S1 on rebound, entry zone=51-53, IDS just above 53.5, CS just above 51 with a bullish candle., IT around 47.

10. UA: the post-earning rebound could not be sustained. Weekly show confirmed down trend with increasing negative momentum; daily also bearish, but 30/60 min in oversold region.
** DT/SW S1 on rebound, entry zone=58-61, CS above 61, IDS above 62, IT=53.

11. WLT: the post-earning rally propels it to new high and screaming bullishness.
** DT SW L1 if it spikes towards 32.5/33 use 32 as stop.

Eyes on the shipping sector:

1. TBSI: very much like DRYS; earning report on Nov9? A break-down through 58.5 may drive it to test 51.
** DT SW S2 on rebound, entry zone=62-63.5, IDS just above 64, CS just above 63, IT=58.

2. EXM: very much like both DRYS and TBSI; if it breaks down 63.1, it will test 60.

3. DSX: much stronger than other player in the sector...

Next Weekly earning plays:

1. CTRP: Nov 7, AMC, bullish everywhere and making new highs. It has always been a textbook buying on dip play, will this time be different?
KEY Support: around 45, 48, 51, 54,

2. SONS: Nov 8 AMC. Last Q was a disaster, but it has been on recovery, will this Q report support a perfect cup-n-handle formation?
Key S/R: 5.5, 6, 6.5, 7, 7.2-7.5, 8, 8.5

3. NVDA: Nov. 8. arguably the strongest in the dismal semi sector, it always delivers on the earnings, will this time be different?
KEY S/R: 30/31, around 32.5, around 33, around 36, 39.67 (high)

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Trading Calls-- Oct. 29-Nov. 2, 2007

I am still struggling to correct a couple of key issues in my trading, and if anything, it has become crystal clear that if I ever hope for a successful trading career, I must find a way to completely remove those key mistakes from my system.

On the market:

I must admit that overall the major indices in the past week were much stronger than I had expected. The extremely bearish candle formations of the week before were substantially mitigated for DOW and SP500, and in the case of NASDAQ, almost fully invalidated. On the weekly charts, it seems that NASDAQ is ready to challenge its recent high at 2834, and DOW/SP500 in similar albeit a bit weaker positions. On daily charts, it is worth to point out that the major indices found very strong support from their key levels, which is highlighted by the 2 sessions where the bulls staged tremendous comeback from the big sell-offs. The bullishness on the daily charts is very clear.

Besides the continuous earning report flood, next week features two key events: the FOMC decision on Weds and the Oct. employment report on Fri. Right now the market fully expects a .25% rate cut, while I expect they will get it, I am not sure if a less than .5% cut will disappoint bulls.

A couple of observations on the earning season so far: first, most reports from big industrial, financial and other non-tech companies have been overall disappointing; second, many tech sector names (except the semis) have had better-than-expected earnings and outlook, but in many cases, there are signs of distributions in the post-earning rally (just look at the bearish candle of MSFT on the Friday).

I have to say that I am continuously impressed or frankly baffled by the fact that the market has kept rising despite of unfavorable news from all fronts, and I don't really know what's the driving force behind it, liquidity, momo-traders, frustrated shorts?

On next week's trading

I will continue focus on day-trading, and will refrain from shorting especially before the FOMC decision. Due to the bullish bias early next week, I might also consider break-out setups, but will be quick to take profits.

Trading calls:

1. AAPL: weekly chart very bullish, but daily chart show signs of distributions ever since the earning report; 60/30 min charts modestly bearish. I feel that it may fill the gap in the coming days.
** S2-DT: if the opening signal confirms, use open and key resistances around 186 and 189 as stop references. IT=183.
** L2-CTT: if it spikes towards key support levels at 175, 179, or even around 182.8.

2. AMAM: weekly chart just confirmed the turn-around of the down trend; daily chart bullish; 30/60 min in overbought area and suggests some pullback.
** L1-DT or Swing: if it spikes towards 35.5 or 37, IT=41.

3. AMZN: weekly chart mildly bullish, daily chart mildly bearish; 30/60 min charts bullish though in overbought area.
** DT-CTT if it spikes towards key S/R at: around 88, 92, 94 use tight stops.

4. BIDU: both weekly and daily charts are bullish though with some bearish divergence developing.
** DT-L2: if it breaks 360, or spikes towards 300, 323, 330.

5. BRCM: the big post-earning drop turns every chart bearish.
** DT/Swing S1 if it spikes towards EMA50 (currently around 37) with a stop just above 37, IT=32.

6. COH: the post-earning drop signals a new around of down trend. Weekly chart shows increasing downside momentum; daily chart bearish but in extremely oversold conditions; 30/60 min charts point out more rebound.
** Swing S1, entry zone=37-39 and 40-41, IT=30.

7. CTRP: weekly chart bullish, daily mildly bullish. 30/60 min charts show increasing bullish momentum but in overbought region. With its earning date around Nov. 7, looks like the pre-earning run is about to start.
** DT/SWing L1 if it breaks 54, IT=59. DT stop just below 53.5, Swing stop just below 51.

8. DRYS: Weekly chart bullish, daily chart shows the bull run stalled below last week's high around 130 with some bearish divergence.
** DT-L2 if it spikes towards 105, around 117, 120.
** DT-S3 if it spikes towards 129 with a stop just above.

9. ENER: weekly chart is on the verge of confirming the reversal of the down trend; daily chart; 30/60 min charts overall bullish but sellers are still evident.
** SW-L2 if it spikes towards 26.6, CS just below 26.3, IDS just below 26, IT=30.

10. FFIV: the post-earning drop turns every chart bearish.
** SW-S1 if it spikes towards 36/38 with closing stop just above, IT=32.
** DT-S1 if it spikes towards 38/39.5 use tight stops, IT=36.5

11. ILMN: ongoing pullback due to patent lawsuit and slightly less bullish outlook. The weekly chart is still bullish, the daily chart suggests more pullback likely; 30/60 min charts suggest rebound on the way.
** SW-L1 if it spikes towards 51 or 48/49 with CS just below 51 or 48, IT=54. However, it may stop here with low around 52.8, in which case, wait for bullish candle and diminishing selling pressure before making entry.

12. JCG: another broken down retailer. Weekly chart bearish, daily too but some rebound on the way.
** SW/DT S1 if it spikes towards 42, use EMA50 as stop references.

13. NUE: Weekly chart shows increasing bullish momentum; daily chart bullish; 30/60 min charts show overbought conditions with diminishing momentum.
** SW/DT L1 if it spikes towards 59 or 61 use a tight stop just below, IT=65.

14. TBSI: weekly chart bullish with increasing momentum; but daily chart shows diminishing momentum with possibility of more pullback.
** DT-L2 if it breaks 68, IT=70
** SW-L2 if it spikes towards 57 with CS just below it.

15. VRTX: Weekly chart confirmed trend-reversal with increasing bearish momentum; daily chart also bearish but more rebound possible; 30/60 min bearish.
** DT/SW S1 if it spikes towards 35 with stop just above EMA50=35.4
** DT/SW S2 whenever it breaks the previous day low, IT=29.

16. X: Weekly chart just confirmed trend-reversal; daily chart also bullish; 30/60 min charts show overbought conditions but momentum still strong
** DT L1 if if breaks 111.5, IT=114, stop just below 111.
** Swing L1 if it spikes towards 107 with CS just below it, IT=114.

Earning Watch:

1. CROX: Q3 report oct31-nov2?. weekly bullish but daily has bearish signs. KEY S/R: around 57, 60, around 63, 69, 72.4.

2. GRMN: Q3 Oct. 31 BMO, weekly bullish with diminishing momentum, daily bullish but stalled under recent high. KEY S/R: 95, 105, 109, around 116, 125.68

3. UA: Oct. 30 BMO. weekly show confirmed reversal of uptrend, daily chart shows quite strong rebound with more likely. Key S/R: 53, around 58, around 60, around 62, around 66.

4. LDK: Oct. 29? bearish all around. Key S/R: 22, around 28, around 35.6, around 41.5, around 46, 52.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Trading Calls-- Oct. 22-26, 2007

On last week's trading:

My winning streak ended at 13 sessions on Friday when I was controlled by intense emotions and committed despicable mental mistakes one after another. That was on top of the numerous terrible trades earlier in the week, mostly the same old same stories in which I failed to capture majority of profitable movement. I am really sicked of all those mistakes and I am disgusted that I keep repeating them. I must do something here! Starting next week, I will purposely reduce my trading size to see if that would help me to combat those psychological issues. I also need to remind myself to be realistic, not greedy, and most of all, to stay cool-minded and disciplined.

On the market:

The volatile week ended with a big sell-off on the Friday. The developing weakness in the market probably can be attributed to the not-so-bright Q3 reports from key industrial and financial companies, which explains why both DOW and SP500 are notably weaker than NASDAQ. Tech sector overall remains relatively strong, but the Q3 reports are not nearly one-sided bullish like they had been in previous quarters.

On the weekly charts, both SP500 and DOW turn slightly bearish while NASDAQ remains slightly bullish. It is worth to point out that a weekly bearish-engulfing Marubozu candle has formed for all three indices, the size of which is pretty close to that of the July 27 one. The overwhelming bearish candle formation will prevent any sustainable rebound in early part of the next week if not outright leads to more losses.

On the daily charts, all indicies are clearly bearish, highlighted by the extremely bearish Marubozu candles on the Friday, with both SP500 and DOW slice through the EMA50. While the near-term bearishness is evident and short-the-rebound seems a sound strategy for the next week, it should be noted that all indices are approaching to some very strong support levels: NASDAQ-2690-2725, SP500-1480-1500, DOW-13200-13520, and it is conceivable that some rebound from these levels will happen.

Another bearish note: both SP-mid cap and Russell2000 seem to have formed solid triple/double tops.

One other noticeable sign that the market is turning bearish is the red-hot Chinese ADRs have started a serious retreat. It is too bad that Ameritrade does not have any shares for short for almost every one of them.

For next week's trading:

Once again, I will focus on Q3 earning plays. I will also pay attention to any shortable rebounds using key resistance levels as stop references. Due to the increasing volatility, I will be cautious about swing trades, long or short.

Trading Calls

1. ANF: clearly range-bound and weekly chart favors long if it approaches the lower boundary of the trading range.
** Swing-L2 if it spikes towards 71-72, with a stop just below 71, IT=79.

2. COST: weekly chart bullish, daily chart neutral.
** Swing/DT L1 if it spikes towards 62, stop just below 62, IT=65.

3. CRM: weekly bullish, daily bearish.
** Swing L2 if it spikes towards 49/46, stop when closes below those levels. IT=53.5.

4. CTRP: both weekly and daily charts bullish.
** Keep close eyes on the 54 resistance and 54.71 all time high, L1 if it breaks such levels with a closing stop just below 54.
** DT L1 if it spikes down towards 48/46 using tight stops.

5. DRYS (focus stock): both weekly and daily charts bullish, but more pullbacks are possible due to the huge gains in recent days.
** DT S1 if it spikes towards 123, stop just above, IT=120
** DT S2 if it spikes towards 117/118, stop just above 120, IT=111
** DT Swing L2 if it spikes towards 110/111, stop just below 110, IT=117
** DT Swing L1 if it spikes towards 99/100, stop just below 99, IT=110.

6. ISRG: bullish all around, blow-off Q3.
** DT Swing L1, key support around 263 and 266, IT=280.

7. RIMM: bullish all around.
** DT/swing L1 if it spikes towards 100/105.

8. SHLD: both weekly/daily charts bearish, but the strong buys occured a couple of weeks ago may have some implications here.
** Speculative L3 if it spikes to 128/123 with tight stops, IT=136.

9. SNDK: both weekly/daily charts very bearish. lower Q4 outlook will depress bulls for a while.
** DT/Swing S1 on rebound if it spikes towards 45.5/47, IT=41.5.

10. SONS: weekly chart turning bullish, daily chart more bullish
** DT/Swing L2 if it spikes towards EMA50=6.3, with a tight stop just below, IT=6.5/7.

11. TBSI: weekly very bullish, daily bullish but may be more pullbacks.
** Swing/DT L1 if it spikes towards 61 or MA10, use tight stops if DT, IT=67/70

12. UA: both weekly/daily very bearish,
** Swing/DT S1 if it spikes toward 57-58, stop just above 58. IT=49/50.

13. WFMI: weekly remains bullish, pullbacks entering oversold region.
** Swing/DT L1 if it spikes towards 46-46.5, stop just below 46, IT=48.

Earning Plays:


AAPL: both weekly/daily charts quite bullish, market is obviously expecting a very positive report, a negative surprise will send it down to 153/155 region for sure.
Key to look from the report: rev 6.05B, earning 85cent, Mac 2.2 M.

TXN: both weekly/daily charts turning bearish.
Key S/R: around 33, around 31.8, 34.8-35.5, 37.37.2.


AMZN: both weekly/daily charts bullish but bearish divergence developing.
Key S/R: around 70, 74, 88, 94, 96.73.

COH: both weekly/daily clearly bearish and on the edge of breaking down. My gut feeling is the Q3 report will be strong as usual, but considering market reactions to its Q2 report and the macro consumer discretionary spending conditions, it seems a good play to short any QUICK rebound.
Key S/R: near 40, around 43, at 46!

ILMN: bullish all around. This is a true growth story. My gut feeling is that if there is any weakness in its Q3 report, it should be treaded as a buying opp for swing trades.
Key S/R: around 49.6, around 51, 54, 63.38.


AKAM: both weekly/daily charts show signs of turn around of the down trend.
Key S/R: 27.75, around 30, around 33, 35, 38-39.5, around 43.

AFFX: both weekly/daily bullish, but overall range-bound. The key question about its business is if ILMN is chipping away its business.
Key S/R: 23.85-25, around 27, around 28.7, around 31, 32.


BIDU: bullish all around. A stellar Q3 report is expected and probably baked in the the price.
Key S/R: around 270, around 294, around 300, around 225, around 330, 359.45.

FFIV: weekly just turned bullish, daily more bullish.
Key S/R: around 36.5, around 40,around 43, 47.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Trading Calls-- Oct. 13, 2007

On recent trading:

Even though I am in one of the longest winning streak right now, 9 days and counting, and made some trades that I am proud of, my woeful incapability of letting the winners run continues. The problem has cost me over $25k of uncaptured profits in the past 2 weeks along, and it becomes routine that everyday I would have at least 1-2 trades which had a run for at least $1500 with me only pocketing 10% or less of the move. I must focus on solving this problem or at least making some improvement. I realize that the main reason for this problem is psychological, namely, the fear of losing profit when above water. One thing I will stick to next week is using smaller trading size which hopefully will allow me to let the winners run a bit longer.

On the market:

As expect, the bulls continues their parade, and fever and a sense of invincibility are growing, just look at the parabolic movement of many Chinese ADRs. Technically, charts in almost every time frame continue to be very bullish. However, aside from the fact that the market have been really stretched, there are some bearish divergences. The most notable are the OBV on daily charts and MACD on 60 min charts from all three major indices. I also find the dramatic top-reversal sell off occurred this Thursday PM very intriguing: the extreme volumes on the downside suggest that big boys start to get nervous about their paper-profits. As the market continues to push higher next week, I suspect that such dramatic sell-off may well happen again if any big names release disappointing Q3 reports. At this stage, all big sell-offs are buying opportunities, just like what happened last Friday. However, if this high-volume drops become frequent, it may help the topping process.

On next week's trading

I will focus primarily on day-trading even though the setups are mostly based on the swing strategy. I will also focus on the post-earning reports plays on the big tech companies.

Trading Calls

1. AAPL: overall quite bullish, but I sense a sense of caution/nervous here.
*** DT only using the following key S/R: 153, 159.5, 163.5, 166.6, 167.5; 170.5, 171.88.

2. ADBE: Swing only, entry zone=43-45.1, CS just below 44, IDS below 43, IT=46.

3. AKAM: both daily and weekly charts offer signs of turnaround of recent down-trend, but not all confirmation is in, expect more volatile moves in the coming days.
*** DT or overnight play, CTT between 33/34 and 39.5/42

3. AKS: last week's labor settlement news propelled it to new high, and charts are mostly bullish, there are some bearish divergence here and there. Considering that the steel sector has been performing far worse, I suspect it will pullback some bit.
** speculative swing S3: entry zone=50-51, stop just above 51, IT=45

4. AMZN: weekly chart bullish with some divergence, daily chart turn bearish, 30/60 min charts suggest more rebound.
** speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 94 with stop just above, IT=89.

5. BIDU: weekly/daily charts overall bullish, but sells become visible near highs, I doubt it will make new high before Q3 report on Oct. 25.
** DT-CTT when it approaches the following key S/R: 294, 300, 330, 334, 345/346.

6. COH: weekly/daily bearish, 30/60 min charts bearish but oversold
** Swing S1, entry zone=45-46, stop just above 46; IT=42
** Speculative DT-L2 if it spikes towards 40/41, stop just below 40.

7. DRYS: bullish all around, but sellers in close-watch here
** DT-L1 if it breaks 123, stop just below 121, IT=130?
** DT or Swing L2 if it spikes down todays 114/112 use tight stops, IT=120.

8. JCG: still in confirmed down trend, but shows signs of bottom around 43.
** DT or swing L2 if it spikes down towards 42/43, IT=46
** DT S2 if it spikes towards 50/52 use tight stops.

9. LDK: bearishness persists due to distrust of the management, but the raise of its earning guidance will bring bargain-hunting buyers. Be quick to take profits.
** DT-S2 if it spikes toward 49 or 52 use tight stops
** DT-L2 if it spikes toward key support at 33.5, 37, 40.

10. MRVL: weekly turning bullish, daily more bullish, looks like it is ready to challenge EMA200=17.6 and key resistances at 18/18.25.
** Swing L1, entry zone=16.8-17.02, stop just below 16.7, IT=18.

11. RIMM: bullish but stalled.
** DT-CTT when it approaches key S/R: 105, 107.5, 114, 118.8, tight stops.

12. SHLD: neutral at both weekly/daily charts, mildly bearish on 30/60 charts
** DT-L2 if it spikes towards 136 or 139 use tight stops
** DT or Swing S2 if it spikes towards 149 or 153 use tight stops, IT=145.

13. TIF: weekly mildly bullish, daily turns bearish and a hint of top, 30/60 min charts bearish but points to a oversold rebound.
** SW-S1, entry zone=55-56.7, stop just above 57.4, IT=52.

14. UA: weekly chart is about the confirm the reversal of uptrend, but daily and 30/60 min charts point out further rebound.
** DT-S2 if it spikes towards key resistances around 62, 63, 65.6

15. BA: the delay of new jets delivery probably will only get worse. weekly/daily bearish with signs of double top formation; 30/60 min also bearish
** DT or Swing S2, entry zone=97.5-99, stop just above 100. IT=95/94,

Earning play focus list:

1. SNDK: increasing bearish on both weekly/daily charts, 30/60 min also very bearish, but oversold. Looks like it will have a bad Q report.
** Q3 report: Oct. 18 AH
** KEY S/R: 36, around 40, around 42, around 45, 50, 55, 58.5

2. GOOG:very bullish all around, but will it miss earning for the second time in a roll?
** Q3 report: OCT 18 AH
** Key S/R: around 520, around 560, around 585,around 610.

3. EBAY: bullish all around,
** Q3 report: Oct 17 AH
** Key S/R: around 33.75, around 35; around 36.5, around 38.5,

4. YHOO: weekly bullish, daily stalled
** Q3 report: Oct. 16 AH
** Key S/R: around 23, 24.5, 27, 27.37, around 28.5, 31, 32, 33.61.

5. INTC: weekly diminishing bullishness, daily slightly bearish
** Q3 report: Oct 16 AH
** Key S/R: around 22, around 23.5, around 24.5, around 24,around 26.5,27.71

I will also keep an eye on the following Q3 report:

Mon: EDU (BMO)
Tues: IBM,

Note on the China ADRs

Many of these Chinese ADRS have doubled/quadrupled their prices in the past 2-6 weeks featuring parabolic movement, high volumes and extreme volatilities. In my view, this is one of the sign the the current bull market has entered the last innings as speculative and momentum traders become reckless. I don't think those gains can be sustained both on technical and fundamental basis. I would love to start building some initial small short positions in those names, unfortunately, Ameritrade does not have shares for short for almost all those stocks, another sign?

Saturday, October 06, 2007

Swing Trade Calls -- Oct. 6, 2007

On the market

Wow! Friday's big rally has all major indices breaking out solidly. The market has taken any news as good news, and with the low rates and suddenly not bad job market, Can you get any more bullish than this? Bears really don't have much going for them, maybe except that the market has been extended without pullback and that the volumes have been relatively light in the past few weeks. Judging from the weekly charts, it seems that the bullish momentum has just started for the major indices, which can easily translate into at least 4-6 bull run. Given all what's going on right now, I doubt that Q3 report season will rain on bulls parade, unless the Q4 outlook makes a sharp down turn, we shall see.

On the trading strategy:

There is no doubt that the best overall trading strategy right now is swing longs, but patience should be exercised and use daily stochastic and key support level to setup the positions. Swing short might be considered for some retailers as their weekly charts are still bearish and that I suspect that the upcoming holiday shopping season will not be a good one. Day-trading, especially on the long side, is also a sound one, but strict stop-loss and opening signals must be honored. In addition, as the Q3 report season kicks in next week, I am looking forward to trade the post-Q-report based on a special set of set-ups.

Trading Calls:

1. ANF: it is one of the strongest retailer here, and the weekly chart favors long side. However, it made new intra-day highs in the past two sessions, only to fail quite dramatically each time.
** Speculative swing short with small initial size, entry zone=84.88-85.77, stop just above 86; IT=79.
** DT-S2 can be considered, but must have close to key resistance around 85 with very tight stop, IT=82.

2. ANN: rebounded strongly in the past few weeks and now at a critical point as it is approaching EMA200=35.05. Bullish on both daily and weekly charts, but bearish on both 30/60 min charts.
** DT-S1 if it spikes towards 34.7 with a stop just above 35, IT=33.5
** Swing-S2, entry zone=35.8-36.5, stop just above 37, IT=33.

3. ARO: Swing-S2 if it spikes towards 24, stop just above 24.5, IT=21.

4. AKS: bullish on weekly chart, but daily, 30/60 min charts show short-term bearishness.
** DT-S2 with possible holding up to 3 days: entry zone=43-44, stop just above 44.5, IT=40.

5. EBAY: still bullish on weekly chart, but daily/30/60 min charts show short-term weakness.
** DT-S2 with possible holding up to 3 days: entry zone 38.9-39.3, stop just above 39.4, IT=37.

6. GRMN: conflicting signals at different time frames, day-trading only using key S/R: 95.25, 97, 100, 102.6, 109 as stop references; take quick profits as it will remain very volatile until the prevailing signal established.

7. ILMN: heart-breaking as I finally entered at 54 on Oct. 4, only to wuss out for a tiny profit moments later. L1, entry zone=54-55.5, stop just below 53.

8. JCG: CTT between 41 and 46.4 using very tight stops, don't trade the mid-range. Still a clear-cut down trend play, but be patient.

9. LDK: the fear is still there, with Barron's negative article coming out this weekend, it might spike down further, I am looking for a speculative L3 between 33-37, stop just below 30, IT=58; be patient and conservative, and no day-trading!

10. NUE: weekly just turning bullish, but daily/30/60 min charts show short term weakness.
** DT-S2 when it spikes towards key R at 59 and 61, use very tight stops, IT=56.

11. SHLD: weekly chart offers the first sign of reversal of a long-hard down trend, and more bullishness on daily chart.
** DT-Long when it approaches key S at 140 and 146 with tight stops.
** DT-short if it spikes towards key S around 155, 167, 170, 174
** Swing short zone 169-174, with a stop just above 175, IT=150.

12. SNDK: it has been inexplicably weak lately. Weekly chart just showed a trend-reversal signal.
** DT S1 with it spikes towards key R around 53.1-53.5, 54.5, and 56,
** Swing S1, entry zone 53-56, stop just above 56, IT=50

13. STP: conflicting signals at different time frames with mild bullish on weekly chart, and mild bearish on daily or shorter time frame charts. pay more attention to key S/R , and be quick to take profits. Barron's article this weekend may setup Monday's wild swing.
** DT-L2 if it spikes towards 37 use a tight stop, IT=EMA50=38.5.
** DT-S2 if it breaks 39.5, stop just above 40, IT=38.5, quick with profit.

14. TIF: it is on the verge of testing high around 56.8, weekly chart very bullish, daily chart also bullish, but it rose nearly 40% in 5 weeks, and with volume and momentum show slight bearish divergence, and the fact that it is in retail sector, it might be poised to pullback even if it sets new high.
** DT to overnight only, S3 if intra-day show clear bearish signal.

15. UA: both weekly/daily chart bearish, but 30/60 min charts suggest some rebound.
DT/Swing S1 if it spikes to key R at 60, 60.6/61, stop just above 61.5., IT=57

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Swing Trade Calls -- Sept. 29, 2007

Have not posted for a month and what a month it has been!!

On the major indices

All major indices are only a stone-throw away from their previous highs. While they all looked somewhat tired/overbought on the daily charts, the weekly charts suggest that a new round of bull run is about to kick in. My feeling is that the market may test the highs early next week, however, I suspect that the first test might trigger a pullback, which will form the basis for a sustainable run at the new highs, possibly riding on the Q3 reports. I realize that I am sounding a lot more bullish than I have been, and that deep inside I have substantial doubts about the macro-economy outlook. What I am trying to do is to focus on the charts and let the charts dictate my thoughts and strategy.

Speaking of strategy, for all the swing trade in the coming weeks, the best will be buy-dips for those whose weekly charts show clear up trend. Shorting may still be considered but it must apply to those whose weekly charts show down trend, in addition, try to be nimble when booking profits.

1. AAPL: L1 on pullback, entry zone1=136-139, stop just below 136; entry zone2=145-146, stop just below 145.

2. AFFX: S1 on top if it spikes towards 26, stop just above 26.1, IT=24.

3. ANF: S1 on top, entry zone=83-85, stop just above 85, IT=78.

4. BIDU: speculative CTT between 270 and 300, 20-50 shares, $5-10 stop.

5. COH, S2, entry zone1=49.5-51, stop just above 51, IT=48; entry zone2=when it breaks 46, IT=43.

6. CROX: L2, entry zone=59-61, stop just below 59; speculative S3 might be considered if it spikes towards 70, IT=61.

7. CTRP: L1 if it spikes toward 49, stop just below 48, IT=53.

8. ILMN: L1, entry zone=48-49.2, stop just below 48, IT=53.

9. JCG: S2 on top, entry zone=44-46, stop just above EMA50, IT=40.

10. MRVL: CTT between 15.25 and 18 use very tight stops.

11. NUE: S3 on top if it spikes towards 61, stop just above 61, IT=56.

12. PFCB: CTT between 28 (all time low) and EMA50=33.4, prefer on the short side.

13. SINA: L1 if it spikes towards EMA50=43.7 now, IT=50,

14. SNDA: L1 if it spikes towards 33.5, stop just below 33, IT=37.

15. SNDK: S2 on top, entry zone=56-58, stop just above 58.5, IT=50

16. SOHU: L2 if it spikes towards 35, stop just below, IT=38

17. SONS: S1, entry zone1=6.3-6.5, stop just above; entry zone2=6.7-7, stop just above, IT=6.

18. UA: S3, entry zone=61-65, stop just above 65, IT=55

19. X: S3 if it spikes towards 109, stop just above, IT=98.

20. JRJC: speculative S3, entry zone=34-37, stop above 40, IT=23, CHINA craze is in full swing....

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Swing Calls-- Aug. 25, 2007

Have not posted for 4 weeks because I have been phasing out the daily trading activities. However, I did make several trades in this period with a net profit around $1800. What four week we have had, speaking of the roller-coast ride! The only bid mistake I made during this 4-week stretch was on the Aug. 16 capitulation day, I actually fully anticipated the action, but I was too conservative nipping from the long side because I was hoping for a larger intra-day decline. Oh well…

On the market:

A string of low-volume rebound days brought an up week for the market. On the weekly charts, all major indices posted a nice bullish engulfing candle following a near-hammer candle, with diminishing downward momentum. On the daily charts, all major indices have moved up steadily during the week and closed around or just above the EMA50 levels. Most of indicators point out further gains in the coming days, and it is likely that the major indices will attempt to test the rebound highs on Aug. 8, or the following key resistance zones:

NASDAQ: 2630-2640
SP500: 1490-1504.
DOW: 13700—13780.

The fact that the market has been moving up on significantly low volume clearly suggest the lack of institutional buying and the lingering of fear, if such pattern persists in the next week, I would expect the major indices fail their first test of the aforementioned key resistance zone.

On the overall trading strategies for the coming weeks:

Let me make one thing clear: the multi-month uptrend for the market has been challenged and so far remains intact, which implies that it remains a possibility that the market may test or even set new highs. However, given the fact that the mortgage problem is actually still in the early stage, I suspect that the market will test their lows on Aug. 16 before testing the highs, and that it is a real possibility the market is yet to find the true bottom.

With those thoughts in mind, I think the most sound swing-trade strategy for the coming days is to short the ongoing rebound when the market approaches the resistance zones, the key here is to be patient about the setup, entering only when the daily charts show clear signs of overbought diminishing upward momentum AND 30/60 min charts show confirmed reversal signs. Also, use tight stops just above those resistance zones. It is also a good idea to scale-in such short setup, with the bulk of short-position added ONLY when the reversal is confirmed on majority of indicators on the daily charts.

Trading from the long side is doable, but should restrict to day-trading or very short swing trade (2-3 days), and should enter on the dips instead of “break-outs” to minimize the risk/reward ratios.

Trading Calls:

1. AAPL: Swing S2, entry zone1=just below 138 with a stop just above 138; entry zone2=just below 145 with a stop just above 145. IT=128.
2. ADSK: speculative Swing S3 on top if it spikes towards 48 with a stop just above 48.2, IT=42.
3. AKAM: Swing S1, entry zone=35-36, stop just above 36, IT=30.
4. ANF: Swing S3, entry zone=82.9-84.9, stop just above 85, IT=75.
5. ANN: Swing S3, entry zone=34.5-35.4(EMA200), stop just above 36, IT=30.5.
6. ARO: Swing S3, enter if it spikes towards 25, stop just above 25.5 (EMA50), EMA200=25.2, IT=22.
7. BIDU: speculative swing S3 on top if it spikes towards 215, closing stop just above 215, and intra-day stop just above 220.
8. COH: counter-trend-trading between 42 and 47 use very tight stop, don’t trade the mid-range.
9. DVN: Counter-trend trading between 72.5 and 80 use tight stops, don’t trade the mid-range.
10. FFIV: Swing S2 on top if it spikes towards 40 with stop just above 40.5, IT=37.
11. GOOG: Swing S2 on top if it spikes towards 525, with a stop just above 527, IT=503.
12. ILMN: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50=43.7, CS just below EMA50, IDS just below 43, IT=49.
13. JCG: Swing S3 on top if it spikes towards 54/57 use very tight stops, IT=48.
14. NTAP: Swing S2 on top if it spikes towards 30, with stop just above 30.5, IT=26.
15. SINA: Swing S2, entry zone=43-44.4, stop just above 44.5, IT=39.
16. SONS: S1 on top if it spikes toward 6.5 with a stop just above 6.5, IT=5.8.
17. STP: S1 on top if it spikes towards 40 with a stop just above, IT=34.
18. TIF: S1 on top, entry zone=48.5-50, stop just above 50.
19. SU: S3 on top, entry zone=91-93, stop just above 93, IT=85.

Saturday, July 28, 2007

Weekly Trading Calls -- July 30-Aug.3

On the market:

The market ignored some very positive Q2 reports and obsessed with the credit-crunch woes last week and suffered a mini-meltdown. The huge losses across the board have significantly damaged the fundamental technicals underlying the multi-month uptrend. The extent and speed of the decline, especially the failed stabilization/rebound attempt on last Friday, clearly suggest that the jittery and crisis may lie deeper than most people expected. On the other hand, it is still premature to say that the uptrend is now convincingly reversed. As all major indices now oversold and sit just above their key support levels, I fully expect a technical rebound next week with a likely retest of their MA50 levels:

NASDAQ: strong support around 2530. Key resistance: EMA50=2618, around 2630
SP500: strong support around 1450. Key resistance: EMA50=1514, also around 1490.
DOW: strong support around 12845. Key resistance: EMA50=13529, also around 13700.

The overall trading strategy for August should be: short on top when the major indices and stocks rebound back to the key resistance levels. For very short-time frame trading, long at the bottoms as long as the indices stay above the aforementioned key support levels. However, for any long trades, be careful with the position sizes and be ready to take quick profits.

The bottom line: for the first time in months, there are solid signals pointing to a start of a bearish reversal of the uptrend. As always the case during the early stage of a trend reversal, one should start to establish short swing positions, but do so with patience and fully expecting of some dramatic rebounds.

L1: strong buy, untrend plays, may hold. L2: rebound-buy, only for a quick profit.

1. AEO: speculative L2, entry around 24 or as low as possible, IT=27, make sure you have a risk/reward ratio of 1:6 or better.

2. AMD: L2 on bottom, entry zone=13-13.71, stop just below 13, IT=15.5

3. ANN: L2 on bottom, entry zone=32.25-33, IT=34, stop just below 32, make sure you have a risk/reward ratio of 1:6 or better.

4. BIDU: L1, entry zone 200-204, stop just below 200, IT=215.

5. BRCM: L1, entry zone=32-32.3, stop just below 32, IT=34.5

6. COH: report Q2 on July 31, consider long near 42 if it spikes down initially, IT=48.5.

7. COST: L1, entry zone=57.25-58.5, stop just below 57, IT=61.

8. CTRP: L1, entry zone=72-74, IT=82

9. DVN: S1 on top if it spikes towards 78, stop just above 78.5, IT=71

10. FNM: S1 on top if it spikes towards 63, stop just above, IT=55.

11. HD: L2, entry zone 35.3-36.4, stop just below 35, IT=39.

12. ILMN: L1, entry zone=42.5-45, stop just below 42.

13. LRCX: L1, entry zone 55-56.1, stop just below 55, IT=60

14. MRVL: L1 if it spikes towards 18, stop just below 18, IT=20.

15. RACK: L1, entry zone=11.25-12, closing stop<11.25, intra-day stop just below 11, IT=14.

16. SBUX: L1, entry zone=25-25.61, stop just below 25.75, IT=28.5

17. SINA: L1, entry zone40-41.1, stop just below 40, IT=46. (Q2 on Aug. 7)

18. SNDA: speculative L2 if it spikes towards 27 with a stop just below, IT=30.

19. STP: L1 if it spikes towards 37, stop just below 36.5, IT=42.

20. X: S1 on top if it rebounds to EMA50 around 109, stop just above 110, IT=92

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Swing calls -- July 22, 2007

On the market:

Last week turned out to be one of the most dramatic week in recent months, after notching new highs, all major indices registered a losing week. The overall reactions to the first week of peak Q2 reports are mildly negative. Earning reports will continue to pour in next week, feathering key companies in the oil sector, housing sector and tech titans such as TXN and AAPL. If market continues to react negatively, the major indices may be set to test key supports such as MA50. However, until the major indices broke their MA50, the trend is still up. One sector that demands particular attention is the banking sector, whose index just produced a death cross (see Trade Mike's chart and comments). All companies in this sector are now perfect short-on-top candidates. If the financial heavy weights continue their rapid descend, the possibility of new market highs will be significantly diminished.

1. AAPL: will report Q2 in Wed AH, also, Tuesday's AT&T Q2 report may also reveal iPhone sale situation and therefore impact AAPL price. Keep eye on key supports around 115, EMA50=122.7 and 127.5 if it drops following the report. Look at GOOG for possible AH play on the long side.

2. BIDU: S2 on top only if it spikes towards key resistance near 200 and 210 use very tight stop, don't go long unless it spikes towards EMA50 currently near 163.5.

3. BRCM: L1 on bottom whenever it spikes towards EMA10.

4. COST: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards EMA50 currently around 58.3.

5. ELN: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 19.4, stop just below 18.9, IT=22.

6. HD: L1 on bottom if it spikes towards 38, stop just below 37.8, IT=40.5

7. ILMN: will report Q2 on Wed. Keep eye on key supports around 35.5,37, EMA50=38.4, and prepare to trade from the long side if it drops quick in AH, however, if it breaks solidly above 42.3, consider buying the break-out!

8. LRCX: L1 if it drops to 55-56 due to market correction, stop just below 55.

9. MRVL: L1 if it spikes down towards 18/18.5, with CS<18.5, IDS around 17.8, IT=21.

10. PFCB: currently long at 35.21, will report earning around Wed noon. Consider exit half position if it spikes towards 36 on Monday and close all position if it spikes towards 37. intra-day stop just below 34.7 and closing stop just below 35.15.

11. RACK: reports on Thursday AH, long if it breaks 14.2, and watch for key support around 11.2.

12. SBUX: L1 if it spikes towards 26.8, IDS just below 25.8 and CS just below 25.5.

13. X: reports Q2 on Tuesday, it is poised to break down based on the chart, S1 if it spikes towards 116 with a tight stop?

14. AMZN: will report on Tues AH. watch for key supports around 60, 63.7, and 67.5 (EMA50). Long at 60 or 63.7 may be considered if it spikes down in the first few minutes following the report,but tight stop, small position size and quick profit-booking are needed.

15. DHI: will report on Thursday, it is approaching a historic support around 18.5. It made new 1-yr low last week, I suspect that the Q2 report will turn it around.

The following banking/brokers are poised to fall further, however, they are all not far away from key support levels (often strong long term supports), therefore, for swing trading, the best is to wait for them to bounce back towards EMA50, which will offer setups with good risk/reward ratios. On the other hand, they can be day-traded from the short side based on 10 day 30 min charts.

1. BAC: S2, entry zone=49.1-50.25, stop just above 51, IT around 47.

2. BSC: S1, entry zone=139-145.2 (EMA50), stop just above 146, IT around 127.

3. GS: S2 if it spikes towards it EMA50 (currently 220.6) stop just above 221, IT around 198.

4. LEH: S2 if it spikes towards its EMA50 (currently at 74.4) with a stop just above 75.

6. MER: S2, entry zone=83.8(EMA10)-86.9(EMA50), stop just above 87, IT=78.

7. MS: S2 if it spikes towards 70 or 73.5 use tight stops, IT around 65.

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Swing trade calls -- July 15, 2007

On the market:

The persistent advance of NASDAQ finally drove both DOW and SP500 to the new highs last week. On any charts from any angles, the break-out is solid, though could be more convincing had the overall volumes been higher. Speak of the volumes, I have a gut feeling that the short-covering played a significant part in the dramatic bull run on last Thursday and follow-through on Friday. The relatively light volumes tell me:

1. Big boys are not adding to their long positions at this level, nor taking profits right now. They are probably waiting until they see a clear signal of Q2 report/Q3 outlook.

2. The shorts are yet to capitulate, which means that the market may have more room to run up.

All major indices and a lot of stocks are in extremely overbought region, which means swing-long at the current levels may not be very profitable. Buy-the-dip remains the best strategy.

The coming week is likely to set the tone for the earning season, if the market reacts very positively, I think there will be at least another 3-6 weeks of bull run (into mid or late August). Technically speaking, it is hard to conceive that the overall trend would reverse even if the Q reports from many key companies come in lower than expected.

Short plays should be avoided as a general rule.

1. AMD: L2, entry zone=14.81-15.2, stop just below 14.4, IT=16.

2. ANF: S1 if it spikes towards 79, stop just above 79.5, IT=71.

3. BBY: L2, entry zone=45-46.7, IT=50, clear bullish divergence on the weekly chart.

4. BIDU: L1 if it spikes towards 195 or 200 use very tight stops.

5. BRCM: L1 if it spikes towards 31.1, stop just below 31, IT=33.5.

6. GOOG: Consider L1 around 515 if it pulls back on earning in AH, stop below 500.

7. LRCX: watch for the 55 resistance, a close above 55 with volume could drive it to a new high.

8. MRVL: L1, entry zone 17.75-18.1, stop just below 17.7, IT around 19.5

9. NUE: S1 if it spikes towards 67 with a stop just above it, IT=60.

10. RIMM: L1 if it spikes towards 217, stop just below 215.

11. SHLD: S1 if it spikes towards 162, stop just above 162.5, IT=153.

12. SONS: S1, entry zone8.4-8.68, stop just above 8.7, IT=8

13. URBN: S1 if it spikes towards 23, CS>23, IT=20?

14. DRIV: S1 if it spikes towards 50, stop just above, IT around 46.

Sunday, July 08, 2007

Swing trade calls -- July 8, 2007

On the market:

The NASDAQ had a low volume break-out week while both SP500 and DOW are approach their early June high for the 3rd time. Bears would be in a new round of despair if SP and DOW join NASDAQ to break to the new high in the coming days, and that may be determined by the early tone of the Q2 report season. If the market reverses right now, bears may be looking at a triple top formation, however, unless the major indices do break their early-June low, bulls can continue enjoy their party.

On the overall trading strategy:

The safest is buy-the-dip, shorts may only apply to those whose Q reports greeted by negative reactions AND have subsequently been rebounding as the rising water lifting all the ships.

1. ADBE: S2 on top, entry zone=42.4-43, stop just above 43.3, IT=39.

2. ADI: speculative S3 on top if it spikes towards 40, stop just above 41.1, IT=36.5.

3. BBY: S1 on top, entry zone=49.4-50, stop just above 50, IT=47.

4. ILMN: L1 if it breaks 42, CS<42 with a bearish candle,IDS
5. LRCX: S1 if it breaks and closes below 50.6, stop around 52, IT=47.5.

6. NUE: S1 on top if it spikes towards 64 with a stop just above, IT=59/60.

7. WLT: CTT watch as it approaches 32.5.

Sunday, July 01, 2007

Swing trade calls -- July 1, 2007

On the market:

There are plenty of signals that the bulls are losing strength, however, the major indices need to break its June low before bears can claim any upper hands. I still feel that the kick-off of Q2 report season will have a decisive impact on the intermediate term trend of major indices. Until that happens, play counter-trend trading near key S/R levels will have the best RSK/RWD ratio.

1. AAPL: Monday's market reaction to its iPhone IPO weekend may signal its near-term trend, go long if it breaks 126/127.61 with a stop just below 124/125, and consider short it it breaks/closes below 119/115, with IT around 104. MA50=113.4.

2. ADBE: S1, entry zone=41-42(MA50), stop just above 42, IT=37.5.

3. BBY: S1, entry zone=47.3-47.8, stop just above 48, or 48.4-48.9(EMA200), stop just above 49., IT=45.5.

4. BOBJ: S2, entry zone=39.7-40.8, stop just above 41, TI=EMA200=37,

5. COH: S1, entry zone=48.7-50, stop just above 50, or if it breaks/closes below 46, IT=42.

6. LRCX: S1 when it breaks/closes below 50.6 with a bearish candle, stop just above 51, IT=EMA200=49.3, may consider S1 on top if it spikes towards 55, with a stop just above 55.

7. MRVL: L1, entry zone=17.2-18, stop just below 17, IT=19.5.

8. NUE: S1, entry zone=60-62, stop just above 62, IT=53.

9. SNDA: L1, entry zone=28.6-30.1, stop just below 27.5,

10. X: S3 (possibly in early trend reversal stage, patient and scaled entry), entry zone=113-117.5, stop just above 118, IT=100

Saturday, June 16, 2007

Swing trade calls -- June 16, 2007

On the market:

Looks like my previous predication of a top is falling apart. The strength and extent of the rebound exceeds a little bit of my expectation, and I must say that I am amazed to see how the market ignores the bad aspects while intensively focuses on the good aspects of any inflation report. However, I find it very hard to find the reasons that the inflation will stop rising, on the contrary, I think the non-core inflation, which the Wall Street has completely ignored so far, will gradually drive up the overall inflation, and that is only a matter of time. I still think the the cross over of 5% of the 10 year bond yield is a very significant event. The market will most likely consolidate at the current level until the Q2 report season kicks in in 3 weeks, which may dictate the next meaningful move of the major indices.

On what small players should do right now:

If you are not a trend decider, you must either follow the trend or just sit out. Don't fight the trend or you will be punished!

The bottom line is that the easy money on the long side has been made. Going long near the current high does not have a good risk/reward ratio, buying the dip use MA50 as stop reference is probably the safest way to approach the market right now.

1. AAPL: S1, entry zone=124-127, stop just above 127.7, IT=110.

2. ADBE: S1, entry zone=43.3-44.5, stop just above 45, IT=41.

3. AKAM: S2, entry zone=51-53, stop just above 53, IT=46.5

4. COH: S1, entry zone=51-52, stop just above 52, IT=47.

5. ERTS: S1, entry zone=51-53, stop just above 53, IT=49.

6. ILMN: L1, entry zone=36.3-38, stop just below 35.5, IT=42.

7. NUE: S1, entry zone=64.5-67, stop just above 67.5, IT=60.

8. NVDA: L1, entry zone=37-39, stop just below 37. IT=41

9. RACK: L1, entry zone=12.1-12.6, stop just below 12, IT=13.5. OR when it breaks and closes above 14.3, IT=16.8.

10. SNDA: L1, entry zone=27-27.6, stop just below 27, IT=30.6

12. SNDK: L1, entry zone=44-45.5, stop just below 44, IT=50.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Another dip before new high?

My answer to that question is NO for at least 3 months, why? because the 10 yr bond yield surged across the key 5% and closed at 5.1% today. Do I expect a rebound as the major indices approaching their key support zone near EMA50? very much so and I am looking for some buys. The bottom line is that the overall uptrend is yet to be reversed, but the precipitous drop of the major indices this week could signal the beginning of the end of the 10 month long strong up trend.

I will not be eager to establish swing shorts at this stage. I will be very patient for entering the long positions and will also cut the hold period for the long positions.

1. ADBE: L2, entry zone=41-42.2, stop just below 40.6, IT=43.2

2. BIDU: L2, entry zone=127-134, stop just below 127, IT=140.

3. CHAP: S3 on top, entry zone=70.5-71.2, stop just above 72, IT=65.

4. COH: S3 on top, entry zone=48.8-49.4, IDS just above 50, CS just above 49.5.

5. CRM: L2, entry zone=42.2-43.7, stop just below 42, IT=46.5

6. ESRX: L2 on bottom if it spikes towards 93.7, IDS just below 92, CS when closes below 93.7 with a bearish candle, IT=100.

7. LRCX: L2 if it spikes towards 49, stop just below 48.7, IT=52.

8. NUE: Quick L2 flip if it spikes to 60 or 63 with a very tight stop.

9. RACK: L1, entry zone=12.3-12.7, IT=13.6, stop around 12.

10. SINA: L1 when it spikes towards 36.5, IDS just below 36, CS just below EMA50 with a bearish candle.

11. SNDA: L2, entry zone=25.4-26, IT=28, stop just below 25.

12. SONS: L1 if it spikes towards 8.1, stop just below 8, IT=9.

13. TIF: Quick L2 flip if it spikes towards 47.7, IDS just below 47, IT=51

14. WLT: Quick L1 flip if it spikes towards 28, stop just below 27.5.

15. ARO: consider quick L2 flip if it spikes towards EMA50=43.5 or 42.5 use very tight stops.

16. USU: L2, entry zone 20.4-21.1, stop just below 20, IT=23

17. SGR: L1,if it spikes towards 36, use EMA50 as CS stop reference, IT=40.

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Swing trade calls -- June 2, 2007

On the market:

I sense a fundamental change in the collective market mentality in the past 2-3 weeks: the bullish attitude has been solidified to such that the action (buy-on-dip) starts to firmly reflect the attitude. It is also quite clear that there is still quite a long way to go before the bullishness reach a frantic/crazy level, therefore, as a whole, swing short should be avoided. The market is unmistakably bullish, but with the interest rates continue to climb (the 10 yr yield is poised to break the key 5% level), more explosive movement to the upside may not occur before some kind of consolidations. The less-than-impressive up volumes in recent days indicate that big boys are not eager to commit more nor to take profit at this stage. So what do we do for swing trades? Avoid swing short and be patient with swing longs--both entry and exit.

1. NM: L1, entry zone=10.3-10.6, CS=bearish close below EMA10, IDS=just below 10.

2. OI: L1, entry zone=31.8-33.6, CS=very bearish close below EMA10, IDS=just below 31.7.

3. PCU: L1, entry zone=88-92.5, stop just below 87.

4. SGR: L1, entry zone=39.4-40.8, stop when it closes below EMA10 with a bearish candle.

5. USU: L2, entry zone=20.7-21.3, stop when it closes below EMA50 with a bearish candle, IT=24.5.

6. ADBE: L1, entry zone=43-44.2, stop when it closes below EMA50 with a bearish candle or below 42.

6. BIDU: L1, entry zone=134-136, cs=very bearish close below 134, IDS=129.

7. CHRW: L1, entry zone=52-53, IDS=just below 50, CS=bearish close below EMA50, IT=57.

8. CRM: L1, entry zone=44.3-46.5, CS=bearish close below EMA50, IT=50.

9. GOOG: L1, entry zone=486-492 OR when it breaks 515.

10. RACK: L1, entry zone=11.5-12.1, stop just below 11.5, IT=EMA50=13.6, next target around 16.

10. SINA: L1, entry zone=38-38.8, stop if it closes below EMA10 with a bearish candle.

11. TXN: L1, entry zone=34.5-35.5, IT=37, CS just below 34.5, IDS just below EMA10.