Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Daily Calls: Weds, Nov.1, 2006

Well, it played out as expected, and now the month is behind us, what to expect tomorrow?

1. AKAM: S1 on top, entry zone 47.5-49, stop just above 50.

2. BRCM: Day-trading-CTT between MA50=28.9 and MA200=31.3 use tight stop.

3. COST: day-trading-CTT between 54.3 and 51.5 use tight stop.

4. CRM: S1 on top, entry zone 39.4-40, stop just above 40.3, IT=37.

5. DVN: L2 on pullback, entry zone 65-66, stop just below MA50=64.5, IT=68.5

6. LRCX: S1 on top, entry zone 50.2-51, stop just above 51.3.

7. MRVL: L1 on pullback, entry zone=17.7-18.1, IT=18.8

8. X: S1 on top, entry zone=67.9-68.9, stop just above 69.1, OR be more patient and wait till it approaches 70.

9. YHOO: S1 on top, entry zone 26.5-27, stop just above 27.51, It=24.5.

10. BIDU: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates but traded as low as 78, mostly between 82 and 86. Key levels: 76, 77.8 (MA200), 78 (AH low), 79, 80, 82, 84.5 (MA50), 87.8 (close), 90, 92, 96.

Monday, October 30, 2006

Daily Calls: Oct 31, 2006

As expected, the bulls are far from being scared. Today's action puts everything in a delicate balance, and I see at least another day like this tomorrow as the fiscal year for many large funds comes to the end.

Same calls as the weekly ones for: COST, SONS, TXN, AAPL, ENER,
1. AKAM: CTT between 42 and 48. it closed just below MA50 for first time since August, if market goes down, it could easily test 42/44. Be patient with any bottom fishing.

2. BRCM: consider S2 on top when it approaches MA200=31.3, entry zone 31.1-31.7, stop just above 31.8, IT=29.5.

3. LRCX: S2 on top, entry zone 50.3-51.2, stop just above 51.51

4. AMZN: DT-L1 when it breaks 38.5, ST=38.2, IT=40. DT-L1-on bottom, entry zone 37.7-38.1, stop just below 37.6.

5. RACK: reported Q3 in AH., beat estimates, traded mostly between 29.4-31.6. Key levels: 28.6 (MA50), 29.5 (MA200), 31.6 (AH resistance), 32, 34.2. short interests just hit 52 wk high (over 21%).

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Weekly Calls Oct. 30-Nov.3, 2006

On Last week's calls and execution

Overall, my trading calls for the past week were better than previous averages. Notably, there is not a single F grade call both my daily and weekly calls. My execution, on the other hand, continues to lag big time. I have becoming more and more sensitive to the trading risks in the past few weeks that I often hesitate to pull the trigger when a setup developed as expected. One reason for such hesitation is that I have doubts on my slightly-bearish-biased calls in this bullish macro-environment, the other reason is the old fear of loss. Since my trading calls have so far proved to be excellent, I should be decisive and forceful next week whenever a setup is triggered.

On the Market

Another up week for all major indices, but the sizeable decline on the Friday may concern the bulls. On weekly charts, most tech indicators for all major indices show diminishing bullishness. On daily charts, most indicators actually suggest an imminent bearish reversal for all indices. Considering the strength of ongoing bullish trend, however, I don't expect that this past Friday's action will trigger immediate top-reversal right away, instead, the market will be choppy and range-bound until more news to either confirm or dispute the possible hard-landing scenario as hinted by the sharp GDP drop reported on the Friday. And that piece of news may come on next Friday as the date of Oct. Employment is released.

The most important thing to watch is NASDAQ, it did break the April high on Thursday, but the Friday's sharp drop pretty much negated that bullish move and once again buoyant the idea of possible triple tops, but such possibility won't become significant unless NASDAQ drops below 2330 level.

The Q3 earning season so far is better than expected, and it probably will remain so throughout next 2 weeks.

On overall trading approaches for next week

At this stage, day-trading or very short swing is better in this choppy and volatile market. Any swing long setup should be on the pullback rather than break-out, and patience is still required for any short-the-top setup. In any case, risks must be clearly defined and set for any trades.

abbreviations: DT=day trading, SWT=swing trading.

A. Weekly Calls:

1. AAPL: DT-S2-on-top, entry zone=81-82.4, stop at 82.7; OR when it breaks 80, stop at 80.61. SWT-L2, entry points near 76/78 use no more than 0.5 stop, IT=80.

2. AEOS: DT-S3-on-top, entry zone 46.5-47.1, stop at 47.3. SWT-L1, entry zone 42-MA50=42.8, stop at 41.8.

3. AKAM: DT-S2-on-top, entry zone=48-49, stop just above 50; SWT-L1, entry points near 40/45 with tight stops. MA50=45.8.

4. BOBJ: DT-S3-on-top, entry just below 39/40, stop just above 39/40, IT=36.5.

5. COST: DT-S2-on-top, entry zone=53.5-54.2, stop above 54.5; SWT-L2-on-bottom, entry zone just above MA50=51.3 and MA200=51.4, IDS just below 51. Consider go along the trend it closes below the MA50 MA200.

6. CVS: DT-SWT-S2-on-top, entry zone 31.8-32.2, stop just above 32.3, IT=30.

7. EBAY: DT-CTT between 31 and 35 use tight stops, MA200=31.7.

8. ENER: CTT between 35 and 38 use tight stop, DT on the upper boundary, SWT on the lower one.

9. LRCX: CTT between MA50=46 and 51.75 use tight stops.

10. NTRI: DT-S2-on-top near 66, stop just above 66; SWT-L3, entry zone 58.5-60.3, stop just below 58, IT=66.

11. SONS: SWT-L2-on-bottom, entry zone 4.8 (MA200) to 4.96, stop just below 4.8. Be patient, consider scaled entry, IT=5.3 before earning on Nov. 6.

12. TXN: SWT-S1-on-top, entry zone 30.98-31.7, stop at 32, IT=28.5. MA50=31.6, MA200=31.2.

13. VRTX: SWT-L1 on pullback, entry zone 37-39.5, stop just below 37. IT=44.

B. Earning Watch:

1. BIDU: will report Q3 on Tuesday Oct. 31 AMC. Key levels: 77.7 (MA200), 79, 80, 82, 83.9 (MA50), 92, 96.67.

2. CEPH: will report Q3 on Thursday Nov. 1 AMC. Key levels: MA200=61.1, MA50=64.2, 67, 71.2, 76.

3. WFMI: will report Q2 on Thursday Nov. 2, AMC, key levels 60.6 (MA50), 61.4 (MA200), 63.6, 65.5, 67.8, 72.5

4. X: will report Q3 Oct. 31, BMO, key levels: 60.7, 62.8 (MA50), 65, 68, 70.38, 20.66, 77.77,

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Daily Calls, Thursday, Oct. 27, 2006

The NASDAQ finally made a new high today, and SP500 made the elusive 6yr high. Now I expect the market will rise further on NASDAQ’s strength, however, I am unsure how far it would go given that the market has been entrenched deeper in the over bought territory. At this stage, no swing short positions should be opened.

COST: watch as it approaches key resistance around 54.5, which probably is a shortable day-trading plan.

NCTY: S1 on rebound, entry zone 23.8-24.6, stop just above 25, It=22.5.

NTRI: S2 on top, entry zone 65-66, stop just above 66, IT=61.

SINA: L1 on pullback, entry zone 25.6-26.1, IT=27.5, stop just below 25.5.

SNDK: S1 on top when it approaches 52 or when it breaks 49.6, IT=47.

TIBX: L2 when it breaks 9.5 with a stop just below 9.4. IT=10.

TXN: S1 on top, entry zone 31-31.7, stop just above 32, IT=30.

YHOO: S2 on top, entry zone 25.5-26.5, stop just above 27. MA50=25.9.

AKAM: Game plan: L2 either when it approaches the AH low (44) use a tight stop, OR when it break AH high (50.1). S2 on top might be considered when it approaches 52/53 use tight stop. reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates and raised guidance, but still seem disappointing. Traded between 44 and 50.1, but mostly between 46 and 49.3, with solid support at 47 and 48, and resistance at 50. Key levels: 44 (AH low), 45.7 (MA50), 48, 49.83 (day close), 50, 51, 52,

FFIV: consider S2 on top when it approaches 68 with a stop just above 68., IT=65.5

OS: reported in AH, pretty strong number, keep an eye on it and other steel sector stocks to get a sense how much higher can they go>

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Daily Calls -- Oct. 26, 2006

The FOMC decision could not put a decent dent on the market bullishness even for 30 min. Things are looking dicer every day for anyone holding a bearish bias. As for me, even though I have been holding a slightly bearish bias, at least I only act on what I see on the charts when I start to trade, which has so far saved me a lot of headaches (had I acted on my biased views) and made a few bucks J. The market could move big tomorrow as it usually does on the post-FOMC day, and keep eyes on NASDAQ 2375 level, if that level is breached, bulls may super size their on-going parties.

1. CHRW: may consider S2 on top, entry zone 45-45.5, stop just above 46. The reaction to the Q3 is not exactly bullish.

  1. ESRX: consider CTT between 63.8 and 67.5/68.5 use tight stop. The post-earning reaction is very bearish.
  1. NTRI: consider L3 on bottom near 59/60.3/61.6 use tight stop, MA50=61.
  1. SNDK: S1 on top, entry zone 52-53.2, CS=53.2, IDS=53.8. OR, set-up automatic short order using Dave Landry’s protocol.
  1. SOHU: consider L2 on pullback, entry zone around 20.8 with a stop just below 20.6. yet another bottomed-and-reverse event/
  1. TXN: S2 on top, entry zone 31.3 (MA200) to 31.7 (MA50), stop just above 32.
  1. ENER: L1 on pullback, entry zone 37-37.4, stop just below 36.4 (MA50), IT=39.

News and Earning plays:

  1. BOBJ: L1 when it solidly breaks 37 with a stop just below 37. Reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates, traded mostly between 36 and 37.3, with AH support at 36.4 and resistance near 37. Key levels: 34.12 (close), 34.75 (day high and resistance), 36.4 (AH low), 37 (key resistance and AH close), 39. short interests at 1yr high (over 3%)
  1. AFFX: L2 when the AM signals are right, but aware of AH high around 26.3 and MA200. reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates. Traded mostly between 23.8 and 26.3, with solid AH support around 24.6 and resistance around 25.5. Key levels: 22.66 (close), 23.5, 24.6, 25.5, 26.3 (AH high), 27.5 (MA200). Short interests at 1 yr high (nearly 20%).
  1. SYMC: CTT between MA50 and MA200? reported Q2 in AH, met the low end of estimation. Traded mostly between 19.25 and 19.5. Key levels: 18.5 (MA200), 19.25, 19.5, 20 (MA50), 20.78 (close).
  1. FFIV: S2 on top since the AH showed top near 65. reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates, traded mostly between 63 and 66, with solid support around 63 and resistance around 64.8 and 65.2. Key levels: 60, 63.8, 64, 64.8, 65.2, 66, 68.
  1. RHAT: Be patient if you have to bottom fishing this thing (for take over play). It dropped over 16% on heavy volume on some seemingly innocent ORCL news, AH was a down hill move with solid resistance around 17.6, 17.3, 17, 16.8, and closed at the lowest point around 16.33. The stock has already lost 20% in the past 4 weeks. Key levels: 18.68 (recent 52 wk low), 19.51 (today’s close). It has a historical support around 16.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Daily Calls Weds. Oct. 25, 2006

As expected, every dip has been shallow, I can imagine that the pain of those short-and-hold bears are eating then alive, and we will see how much longer can they hold on. Tomorrow is FOMC decision day, even though I can hardly think reasons that the decision could add more fuel to the ongoing rally, but hey, bulls are just unstoppable right now.

1. AKAM: keep an eye on the key resistance around 52, the pre-Q report rally is on.

2. BIDU: Watch key support around MA50=83.6, 82, and then 80/79.

3. ENER: L3 on bottom, entry zone=35 -- 35.5, stop just below 35. may also consider L2 when it breaks today's high=36.78, IT=39.

4. TIE: watch key resistance near 35.

5. TXN: S1 on rebound, entry zone 31.3 (MA200)-31.8 (MA50), stop just above 32, IT=29.

6. VRTX: L2 on bottom if it spikes down towards 31.5-32.4 (MA200), stop just below 31.4, IT=35.

Post-earning List

1. AMZN: L1 when signals right. It reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates, driven shorts-covering, traded most between 37 and 38.5, with solid support at 37, 37.5, and resistance at 38.5. Key levels: 35, 37, 37.5, 38.5, 38.84 (AH and strong resistance).

2. CHRW: It has to break above 46 at the minimum to reverse the ongoing down trend. Reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates. Traded between 42.7 and 44.5. Key levels: 42.11 (today low), 42.56 (close), 42.84 (today high), MA50=44.4, 45.7, 46.7, 48.7, 50.

3. GLW: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates. traded between 21.75 and 22.75. Key levels: 21.75 (AH low), 22.26 (day low), 22.6 (MA200), 23.14 (close), 23.28 (day high), 23.3 (MA50), 24.5.

4. ESRX: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates, but some uncertainty of outlook; traded very volatiley between 69 and 75, close around 70.5; key levels: 65.3, 67.5 (recent low), 68.4, 69 (AH low), 72.25 (close), 75 (AH high), 75.7 (MA50), 75.9 (MA200).

5. NTRI: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates. Traded mostly between 68 and 73, closed around 71.2, key levels: 66, 67.98 (close), 70, 73, 76 (AH high).

Monday, October 23, 2006

Daily Calls: Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2006

The bulls certainly are well and kicking as both DOW and SP500 advanced to fresh highs and NASDAQ is poised to break the potential triple top formation (2375).

1. AEOS: it is set to test the 52 wk high around 46.8.

2. AKAM: day-trading S3 on top near 49.3/52 use tight stops.

3. COST: possible day-trading S3 on top near previous high (54.35) with tight stop.

4. SNDK: watch for support zone between 45.2-47.

5. X: Watch for key resistance at 68-68.6.

6. TXN: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates but outlook light, traded between 30.7 and 31.6 in AH. Key levels: 38.5, 30.5, 30.7 (AH low), 31.3 (MA200), 31.8 (MA50), 31.88 (close), 32.7-33.4.

7. NFLX: reported Q3 in AH, beat and raised guidence, traded mostly between 26 and 26.5, wish solid resistance around 26.6 and support around 26. Key levels: 23.08 (close), 23.9 (MA200), 26.5 (AH resistance), 28.5.

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Weekly Calls Oct. 23 - 27, 2006

Evaluation of my weekly calls:

For the past 7 weeks, the cumulative winning/losing calls stands at 1.5. Except for the week of Sept. 11-15 where the ratio is less than 0.5, the W/L ratio is around 2 for the other 6 weeks. What I feel excited about is that for the past 3 weeks, the ratio of Grade A calls (excellent setup with gains around 5% or more) vs. Grade F calls (wrong direction, stop-out with a loss of around 1% or less) is 3:1. This is striking considering that the majority calls were short-on-top ones while the major market indices marched steadily and significantly higher during the same time frame. I want to make further improvement on my weekly calls, and hope to achieve a consistent overall W/L ratio above 2:1 and A/F ratio above 3:1.

Evaluation of my daily calls:

The cumulative overall winning/losing call during the same 7 week period is at 2.5, much better than that of the weekly calls. On the other hand, the cumulative A/F call is 1.1, or 1 for the past 3 weeks, significantly lower than those of the weekly calls. The results are not unexpected since a single-day movement in your favor over 5% or more is infrequent to say the least. I want to further improve my daily calls, bring the overall W/L call ratio to above 3:1.

Thoughts on the trading strategy

I have been making conscious effort to shift from day-trading towards short swing-trading (3-10 days), and so far, the weekly A/F call ratio is promising for such strategic move.

On the major indices:

The weekly charts show diminishing bullishness for all major indices, NASDAQ is clearly the weakest one as it stalled around the high of spring 2006. Judging from the slopes and candle formation, unless there is some dramatic news, I expect major indices to go sideways in the coming days.

On earning season:

The earning reports from the some major tech names were mixed last week, however, I see a much severe punishment on those who missed target than rewards on those who beat. In case of AMD and SDNK, they only missed the profit margin and handily beat the other estimates, but their shares lose 15-20% in one session on very heavy volume; in case of AAPL and GOOG, both had a blow out report, but shares rose only 7-8% on relatively light volume. This tells me that at current price levels, many stocks are vulnerable for any negative news. I highly suspect that this earning season as a whole can provide enough fuel to drive the market significantly higher.

On next week's trading:

I will try to follow some of my weekly calls by using 100 share size. Once the position is established, I will try to stick with the plan and resist the temptation of small profits. All positions should be closed ahead of the Weds PM FOMC decision.

A. Weekly Calls:

1. AAPL: No swing-shorts; but swing L2 only on pullbacks, entry zone 75.1-76.1, stop just below 75, IT=80; day-trading S2 when it breaks 78, with IT=76/77, stop above 78.5.

2. AEOS: No swing-shorts; swing L2 only on pullbacks, entry zone 42-43, stop just below 41.8. Might consider day-trading S3 on top if it spikes above 46.2, use 47 as stop.

3. ANF: No swing-shorts; swing L3 only on pullbacks, entry zone 1=73.2-74.1, stop at 73; entry zone2=72 --72.5, stop at 71.8; entry zone3=69 -- 69.5,
stop just below MA50=68.7. In all case, IT=76.7

4. BIDU: day-trading CTT between 82/83.4(MA50) and 90/92 use tight stops.

5. BRCM: No swing long or short; day trading CTT between 26 and 29.2 use tight stops.

6. COST: No swing long or short, day trading L3 on bottom, entry point just above 50/51 with tight stops, IT=53.

7. CVS: no long trades, day trading or swing S2 on top, entry zone 31.5-32, stop just above MA50=32.2.

8. ENER: Swing L2, entry zone around 35- 35.5, stop just below 35, IT=38. MA50=36.3, MA200=37.2.

9. JNPR: Swing S2 on top, entry zone 18.1-18.5, stop 18.81, IT=17. Last Friday's bearish engulfing candle coupled with other bearish indicators suggest an imminent pullback.

10. MOT: Swing S1 on any rebound, entry zone 23.98-24.5, stop just above 24.7, IT=22. Judging from the weekly candle, such an enormous bearish candle on the top will lead a multi-week down trend.

11. PEIX: Swing S2 on top, entry zone 17-18.35, stop just above MA200=18.6. IT=14.

12. SNDK: Swing S1 on top, entry zone 51.8 - 53.4, stop just above 53.4 (MA200). On the downside, I expect some support between 45.2-47.

13. SONS: Swing L3 on bottom, entry zone 4.95-5.03, CS=4.94, IDS=4.89. Be patient with it, don't trade mid-range.

14. UNH: Swing L2 on bottom, entry zone 48.5-49.6 (MA50), stop just below 48, IT=52.

15. URBN: Swing S2 on rebound, entry zone 19-19.75, stop just above MA200=19.9, IT=17.

16. VRTX: Swing L3 on bottom, entry zone 32-32.4 (MA200), CS=31, IDS just below 31.4, IT=37.

17. X: Swing CTT ready, entry zone 67-68, stop just above 68, IT=61. If it closes above 68, may consider next CTT around 70.6.

18. LRCX: Swing S2 on top, entry zone 50-5-52, just above above 52.5, IT=47. MA50=45.1.

19. EZPW: Swing L2 on pullback, entry zone 39-40.1, stop just below MA50=38.9, IT=45.

Earning Watch:

1. AKAM: Will report Q3 on Thurs Oct. 26. Right now the weekly chart showing a clear top-reversal pattern. No swing trade before the Q3 report, during which time, day trading CTT between 42/43.9 and 49.3/52 use tight stops, don't trade mid of the range.

2. AMZN: Will report Q3 on Tue Oct. 24. Key levels: 27.5, 28.9, 29.7, 31.8 (MA50), 33.75 (recent high), 34.4 (MA200).

3. CHRW: will report Q3 on Tues. Oct. 24. Key levels: 39.88 (recent low), 41.7-43, MA200=43.8, MA50=44.6, 45.5-46, 48.7, 50, 52.

4. COH: will report Q3 on Tues Oct.24 before open. Key levels: 30.1, 31, 32.1 (MA200), 33.5 (MA50), 35, 36.91 (recent high), 37.4 (all time high).

5. ESRX: will report Q3 on Oct. 24 AH, Key levels: 63.83(6 month low), 67.5 (recent low), 68.4, 72.5, 75.9(MA50), 76 (MA200), around 79.5, 81, 85.

6. NTRI: Will report Q3 on Oct. 24 AH. Key levels: 55, 58, 60.3 (MA50), 63, 66, 70, 72-72.6, 76.33 (all time high).

7. TXN: Will report Q3 on Oct. 23 AH. Key levels: Key levels: 28.5, 30.5, 32.7-33.4, 34, 35.63, 36.4 (52 wk high).

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Daily Calls Oct. 20, 2006

Bulls are becoming invincible at this stage of game. Q3 reports from most big tech names are mixed, but overall on the positive side, yet NASDAQ has been relative weak so far this week, and the danger of triple top lingers around.

1. AAPL: S1 either when it approches 80 stop just above 80, OR when it breaks 78 with stop just above 79. The post-earning reaction was lukewarm judging by the size of the gain and the volume.

2. AKAM: CTT between MA50=45.1 and 49 use tight stops.

3. BIDU: consider S3 on top if it sparks to 90-92 due to GOOG earning in AM, stop just above 92.

4. BRCM: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates but outlook lowered. Traded mostly between 28 and 30.3, and closed around 29.6, up from day close of 28.97. key levels: 27, 28, 28.9 (MA50), 29.6 (AH close), 30 (AH resistance), 31.5 (MA200), 32.6.

5. CHRW: watch resistance at MA40=44.6, MA200=43.8 and 46.

6. COST: watch support at MA50=51 and MA200=51.3, also at 50.

7. EBAY: I expect its first test of MA200=31.7 and 32 will be bounced off.

8. SNDK: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates, but profit margin lowered, traded mostly between 58.6 and 52.7, and closed around 53.3 (down nearly 14%), key levels: 49, 50.3, 52, 52.7(AH low), 53.4 (MA200), 55(AH resistance), 55.6 (MA50), 57.7 (AH resistance).

9. UNH: L2 on pullback around 50, stop just below 49.5. MA50=49.6.

10. X: S3 on top, entry zone 67.9-68.5, stop just above 68.6.

11. XLNX: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates and raised guidance, traded mostly between 25.5 and 26.4 and closed around 25.9 (gain over 8%). Key levels: 24.1 (MA200), 25-25.5(AH low and support), 26.4 (AH high), around 26.8,

12. GOOG: repored a blowout Q3 in AH, traded mostly between 445 and 461, and closed around 458 (7.5% gain), key levels: 426 (close), 438, 450 (AH support), 455 (AH support), 461 (AH high)

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Daily Calls -- Oct. 19, 2006

The action in the past two days shows signs of top-reversal, especially for NASDAQ which appears in the process of putting up the triple top. The bearish divergences are more evident in many of the stocks on my list. It might be the time to really look for short-on-top setups.

1. AAPL: reported Q4 in AH, slightly beat estimates, MAC sale well above expectation but the Q1 outlook shy of the most optimic ones. Traded heavily mostly between 79.2 and 77.05, with clear support at 77, and resistance at 78.1 and 79.2. Key levels: 72.5, 73.1, 74.53 (close), 77 (AH support), around 77.5 (previous highs), 78.1 (AH resistance), 79.2 (AH resistance), 79.9 (AH high).

2. AKAM: S1 on rebound, entry zone 47-48.5, stop at 49. May also consider L1 on bottom when it approaches 42.6 use 42 as stop.

3. AKS: CTT-ready, S2 on top as it approaches 15.7, stop at 15.8, IT=14.

4. AMD: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates, but profit margin drops, stock traded mostly between 23.5 and 20.7, closed around 22, key levels: 19.6-20, 20.7 (AH low), 21, 22.1 (AH close), 22.9, 24, 24.23 (close), 24.7 (MA50).

5. BIDU: CTT between 78.7 and 88.5, watch key support at 82. it probably will be affected by GOOG Q3 report.

6. CHAP: S3 on top, entry zone 40.8-41.5, stop just above 41.7, signs of top.

7. COST: L3 on bottom, entry zone 50-51.4, stop just below 50, IT=53

8. EBAY: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates but not a whole lot of bright spots. Traded mostly between 28.6 and 29.5, and closed around 29. Key levels: 28 (MA50), 28.49 (close), 29, 29.35 (close), 29.5 (AH high), 30, 30.57 (recent high), 30-8-31.1, 31.8 (MA200), 32.

10. OS: S3 on top, entry zone 54.9-55.5, stop just above 55.8, IT=51.

11. SONS: L2 on bottom, entry point 1=4.95 (should stop once 4.9 breached), entry zone 4.8-4.9, stop just below 4.75.

12. UNH: L3 on pullback, entry zone 47-47.51, stop just below 46.9, IT=50.

13. X: S2 on top, entry zone 66.9-67.9, stop just above 68.6, IT= 61, signs of top.

Monday, October 16, 2006

Daily calls Oct. 17, Tues, 2006

Another day during which bulls just kept marching on and bears probably got a bit closer to the point to breaking down. Looks like the market overall has confidence in the upcoming flood of quarterly earning report, and the actions will come tomorrow.

The calls on the following stocks are the same in the weekly calls:


1. AKS: Speculative S3 on top, entry zone 15.5-16, stop just above 16, IT=13.

2. MOT: will report Q3 in AH, is today's very bearish candle indicative of a bad Q3 report?

3. NCTY: S2 on rebound, entry zone 23.8-24.5, stop just above 25.

4. PEIX: S3 on top if it spikes up towards MA200=18.6 in AM, CS=18.6, ITS=20, IT=14.

5. SNDK: L3 on bottom if it spikes towards 59.5 in AM, stop just below 59,

6. TIE: speculative S3 on top, entry zone 29.9-30.5, stop just above 30.5

7. WFMI: watch if it can move forcefully above 65.5, in which case it may test 67. L3 on pullback towards 63 with a stop just below 63 can also be considered..

8. X: another lift this time from Barron's. Speculative S2 on top, entry zone 68.5-70.5, stop just above 70.70, IT=61.

9. PPDI: reported Q3 in AH, beat rev estimates, upped div, but traded between 36.7 and 34.2. Key levels: 32.69 (recent low), around 33.6, 34.2 (AH low), 34.9 (MA200), 36, 36.3 (MA50), 36.8 (close), 37.35 (day high), around 37.7.

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Weekly Calls Oct 16-20, 2006

Another record setting week for the bulls. On the weekly charts, all major indices are poised for further upside move. Judging from the overall volume, both DOW and SP500 show volume decreasing past 3 weeks. On the daily charts, NASDAQ is the strongest, and while still lagging, it is approaching the early high near 2375.5, at 2357, or just over 1% away. The market is extending further into overbought conditions, but so far, any pullback is met with more buying. There are signs of increasing short-covering, which is often the sign of last bullish movement.

Next week is the key in two fronts. First, the PPI and CPI data which will either justify or oppose the the current discount of underlying inflation pressure by most of the market participants (PPI--Tue AM, fall 0.7%, core rise 0.2%, CPI--Weds AM, CPI 3%, core rise 0.2%).

Second, big tech names (IBM, AAPL, MOT, YHOO, INTC, AMD, GOOG, EBAY) are set to report latest Q earning, my guess is that if they overall disappoints, the NASDAQ will make the triple top here and could have some dramatic pullback, on the other hand, if they are overall good, especially their outlook for the year-end quater, then, it is conceivable that NASDAQ will make a new high here and by doing so could drive the overall market even higher, in which case, shorting may really become a bad strategy for the near and intermediate term.

As for my trading plan for the next week, I will keep a neutral bias until I get a clear picture of the tech sector earning outlook. Also, I will use small size (100 share for most stocks), especially in short-on-top setups, and will execute each trade based on pre-set plan and technicals, rather being mostly driven by problematic trading psychology. This is the fundemental problem that I have to solve if I want to be a consistant winner.

A note for any speculative Short-on-top play, besides the setup based on technical signals as well as intuitions, the key is risk/reward ratio, it has to be more than 1:5 to be worthy.

1. AAPL: CTT between 72.5 and 77 until its Q4 report. Try not to trade the mid range. MA50=71.3, MA200=65.2. Will report Q4 on Weds AH. Estimates: 4.67B, 50 cents, Mac sale 6% increase. Outlook for Q1: 6.46B and 77 cents. Key levels: 65.2, 68.8, 69.6, 71.3, 73, 75, 76, 77.8

2. AEOS: Speculative S3 on top, entry zone 47.8-49.8, stop just above 50, IT=42. Several downgrades did not dent the share price for much or for long, if it breaks the hight at 46.8, short covering (shorts at 9 month high) could drive it further up, at which point a speculative short-on-top could be rewarding, especially if the market tanks.

3. AKAM: S2 on top, entry zone 50.9-52, stop just above 52 OR S1 when it breaks/closes below 49, with IT=45.5. MA50=44.6. It clearly under-performed NASDAQ in the past week, charts show bearish reversal signs.

4. AKS: speculative S3 on top, entry zone 15-15.7, stop just above 16, IT=13. I suspect the recent rapid rises on so-so volume won't really last. Be aware of its 1yr high of short interests (13.2%).

5. AMD: will report Q3 on Wed AH. Estimates: 1.31 B, 23 cents, Whisper 27 cents. Key levels: 21, 22.87, 24.7 (MA50), 26.4 (MA200), 27.9 (recent high), 30.

6. BIDU: CTT between 82 and 90, don't trade mid range, MA50=83.1, if breaks 82, it may quickly test support around 79.

7. CEPH: speculative S3 on top, entry zone 69-70, stop just above 70, IT=66. Weekly chart shows bearish price/volume divergence, daily chart shows diminishing up momentum and signs of bearish top reversal.

8. CHRW: S1 on top, entry zone 45 (MA50) - 46, stop just above 46, IT=42. MA200=43.9. In clear and persistance slow motion downtrend for hte past 2 months, is it ready to break down?

9. COH: speculative S3 on top, entry zone 36.8-37.4, stop at 37.5, IT=34.

10. COST: S3 on top, entry zone 53.5-54.3, stop just above 54.4, IT=MA200=51.3. Judging the 6 mo chart, a one-day jump probably cannot quickly change the primary down trend.

11. CTRP: L3 on bottom, entry zone 42.4-43.7 (MA200), stop around 42., IT=48.

12. CVS: S2 on top, entry zone 32-32.4 (MA50), stop just above 32.5., IT=MA200=30.8.

13. DVN: CTT between 62.7 (MA50) and 67.5. Don't trade mid ranges.

14. EBAY: Will report Q3 on Wed. Oct. 18 AH. Estimates: 1.43B, 24 cents. KEy levels: MA50=27.9, 30, MA200=31.8, around 34.

15. ESRX: CTT between 72.5/75 and 64. Don't trade mid range.

16. GOOG: Will report on Thurs Oct 19 AH, Estimates: 1.82B, $2.42. Key levels: 383 (MA200), 401 (MA50), 420, 428, 438, 451.

17. MOT: Will report Q3 on Tuesday AH. Company forcast: rev: 10.9-11.1B, street estimates: 11.07B, 34 cents; 56M phone shipment. Key levels: 22.4 (MA200), 24.1 (MA50), 25.5,

18. NCTY: Speculative S3 on top, entry zone 26.3-27, stop just above 27, IT=MA200=23.5. The short squeeze (15.4) is going on.

19. NTRI: Speculative S3 on top, entry zone 68-70, stop just above 70, IT=61.

20. OS: Speculative S3 on top, entry zone 54.3-55.5, stop just above 56, IT=MA50=48.7. I really doubt this new record move on low volumes.

21. PEIX: S2 on top, entry zone 17.5 - 18.5, stop around MA200=18.6, IT=13. Short squeez (18%) is going on.

22. QCOM: S3 on top when it gets really close to MA200=41, stop just above 41, IT=36

23. SNDK: will report Q3 on Wed Oct 19 AH, Estimates: 733M, 55 cents. Key levels: 52, MA200=53, MA50=54.7, 55, 59.9, 61, 66.2

24. BRCM: will report Q3 on Wed Oct 19, AH, Estimates: 900M, 30 cents. Key levels: around 25, 28, 30, MA200=31.6, 33.

25. SONS: L1 on pullback, entry zone 5-5.11, stop just below 4.95. IT=5.5.

26. STP: CTT-watch, S2 on top, entry zone 27-27.5, stop just above 27.5/28, IT=24.

27. TIE: CTT-watch, S3 on top, entry zone 28-29, stop just above 29.2, IT=26, MA50=26.4.

28. UNH: speculative L3 on bottom, entry zone 47.4-48.2, stop just below 47.2, IT=52. I suspect that the possible resign of the current CEO may rally the stock.

29. WFMI: S3 on top when it approaches 65.5 with stop just above 65.5, IT=60.

30. X: S3 on top, entry zone 66.5-67.7, stop around 68, IT=MA50=60.3,

31. YHOO: Will report Q3 on Tue Oct. 18, AH, Estimates: 1.13B, 15 cents.

32. XLNX: will report on Thurs Oct 19 AH, estimates: 465M, 23 cents. Key levels: 21, 22, MA50=22.6, 23, MA200=24.1, 25-25.5.

watch out the metal sector: Nucor (NUE)--Oct 19., X--Oct. 31 4.2B, $3.18

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Daily Calls Oct. 13, Friday, 2006

The bulls just ran all over the bears, the major indices extended further into the overbought territory, and it did not seem to bother bulls at all, on the other hand, early bears must be in such pain, I wonder if they are capitulating. I realize that I started to feel unsure about any short-on-top approaches, and that itself is actually a bearish sign as many trades like me who has had a bearish bias towards the market have started to doubt themselves.

1. AAPL: consider S3 on top if it spikes towards 76 tomorrow morning, stop just above 76.2.

2. AKAM: S3 on top only when it spikes towards 51.21/52 in AM, stop just above 52. IT=49.

3. AKS: S3 on top when it spikes towards 15, stop at 16, IT=13

4. AMD: S2 on top when it spikes towards 25.25 in AM, stop just above 25.5, IT=23.

5. CHAP: speculative S3 on top when it spikes towards 40 in AM with a stop just above 40.

6. COST: day-trading, S3 on top when it spikes towards 55 in AM with a stop just above 55.

7. CVS: S1 on top, entry zone 31.8-32.5, stop just above 32.5.

8. NCTY: S2 on top when it spikes towards 24.5 with stop just above 25. key resistance zone around 23.5-23.6.

9. OS: speculative S3 on top when it spikes towards all time high around 54, stop just above 54.

10. QCOM: S2 on top if it spikes toward MA200=41 in AM, stop just above 41.

11. SNDK: S3 on top when it spikes towards 59.4 in AM with a stop just above 59.5.

12. SONS: L1 on bottom, entry zone 4.75-4.85, stop just below 4.7. It did not participate in today's strong rally at all, be patient with it.

13. WFMI: S3 on top when it spikes towards resistance around 65.5 with a stop just above 65.5.

14. X: S2 on top if it spikes towards 66.5 with stop just above 67.

15. DNA: L3 on bottom if it spikes down towards 81.5, with stop just below 81.25

16. ESPW: raised guidance in AH, shares spiked over 20% from 36.35 to near 44. traded mostly 41 and 44.1, with solid support 42.6 and resistance near 44. It is a low float stock (around 10.5 m) and high short ratio (over 12%).

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Daily Calls: Oct. 12, 2006

The FOMC minutes and a small airplane crash in NYC gave bulls quite a scare, but they managed to recover most of loss. However, today's incident showed how jittery both bulls and bears are becoming.

1. AAPL: CTT between 70/71 (MA50) and 75/76 with tight stop, don't trade the mid of the range.

2. AMD: S1 on top, entry zone 24.7-25.25 with a stop just above 25.5.

3. CHAP: watch for new high above 39.54.

4. CTRP: consider L2 on bottom, entry zone 43-43.7 (MA200), CS=43.4, IDS=42.4

5. CVS: S1 on top, entry zone 31.8-32.5 (MA50), stop just above 33. MA200=30.8

6. NCTY: S1 on top, entry zone 22.9-23.5 (MA200), MA50=23.6, stop just above MA50., IT=21.

7. OS: Looking for a speculative small short position around 52 with a stop just above 54, IT=45.

8. SNDK: S1 on top, entry zone 59.3-59.8, stop just above 60, IT=55.

9. SONS: L2 on bottom, entry zone 4.71-4.91.

10. X: S2 on top entry zone 1 around 65, use 65.3 as stop, or around 66.5 use 67 as stop.

11. DNA: L3 on bottom, entry zone 81.4-83, stop around 81.

12. LRCX: reported Q1 in AH, handily beat estimates, traded as high as 51.5 with 50.8 as solid support, then came out a cautious outlook for Q2, sold down hard to as low as 46.6, and closed around 47.8 in AH. Key levels: 44.5, 45, 46, 46.6 (AH low), 47.8 (AH close), 48.12 (day close), 50.8, 51.5 (AH high).

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Daily Calls, Weds, Oct. 11, 2006

Bulls won another round as bears show little strength. Tomorrow will be the first earning report test for the bulls as the DOW component AA missed the estimates and down over 5% in AH.

ADI: S1 on top, entry zone around MA50=30.3, IT=29

CHAP: watch for key resistance zone 39.2-39.59.

DVN: watch for key resistance zone between 65-67.5. S3 on top.

OS: consider speculative S2 on top as it approaches key resistance near 52, stop just above 54, IT=45

SNDK: CTT-ready, S1 on top, entry zone 58.2-59, stop just above 59.2, IT=55

SONS: L2 on bottom, entry zone MA200=4.7 to MA50=4.9, stop just below 4.7.

VRTX: considering S3 on top, entry zone around 37, stop just above 38, IT=34.

WFMI: watch for key resistance around 65.5, consider S3 on top.

X: S3 on top when it approaches 65, CS=65.2, IDS=67,

PMTC: consider CTT when it approaches today’s range: 19.33-20.27.

DNA: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates, traded between 82.8 and 87.3, but mostly between 84.8 and 85.8. Key levels: 80, 81.3 (MA50), 81.5 (MA200), 85, 86.93 (today and recent high), 87.3 (AH high).

AA: reported Q3 in AH, missed rev estimate, traded between 25.5 and 26.9, but mostly between 26.2 and 26.7. Key levels: 25.5 (AH low), 26.2 (AH support), 26.6 (9 month low), 27, 28.28 (today’s close).

Monday, October 09, 2006

Daily Calls, Oct. 10, 2006

There were probably a lot of experienced traders faded the opening gap this morning, and they were rightly so in such a bullish market. I expect the market to drift, maybe with a bit up bias, until the earning season kicks in later this week. I doubt that it will be another stellar Q report season, and I will start to look for short-on-top setups with very small initial position (100 shares).

1. AMD: S1 on rebound as it approaches 24, use MA50=24.7 as stop reference, IT=22.

2. CHAP: S2 on top if it does not exceed today’s Hi=39.1, 52 wk high=39.59.

3. CVS: S1 on top as it approaches MA200=30.8, CS=31, IDS=32.

4. ESRX: CTT between 65.5 and 72.5 use tight stops. The short-on-top entry zone is 70 --71.5.

5. OS: S3 on top when it approaches today’s HI=50.3, CS=50.3, IDS=52

6. QCOM: S1 on top, entry zone 36.4-37.5, CS=37.5, watch key support zone 35.75-36.

7. SNDK: S3 on top, entry zone 59.3-59.8, stop just above 60, IT=55

8. VRTX: closed above 37 today, may test 40 soon.

9. X: S2 on top if not break today’s HI=65.19, or wait more patiently around 66.5

10. PMTC: Earning play. Raised outlook for Q4 and Q12007, traded mostly between 19.2 and 20.1 in AH. Key levels: 18, 18.24 (today close and 52 wk high), 19.5 (AH support, 20.1 (AH high and resistance). Short interests reached 52 wk high accounting nearly 8%.

Saturday, October 07, 2006

Weekly Calls: Oct 9-13, 2006

What a week it has been for the bulls: both DOW and SP500 made 3 consecutive new highs while NASDAQ closing within 3% of its May high. The weekly charts of all major indices clearly show the rising bullish momentum and further upside move. The daily charts, on the other hand, suggest exteneded overbought conditions and some signs of top-reversal.

For the coming week, it seems natural to expect some kind of pullback given the fact that the market has risen significantly in the past 12 weeks without any meaningful pullback. However, considering the the signficant bearish sentiment (the short interests in NASDAQ stocks hit new high in Sept.), any pullback could be shallow just like those in the past 2 weeks. The wild card is the kick-off of the Q3 earning season. So far, there have been several pre-Q3 earing warning for some big tech names (MRVL, MU), and I have a feeling that the market is in for a rough Q3 report season. At this stage, it is very risky to be a swing long bulls, on the other hand, a swing bear is evenly if not more risky. But I favor short over long, but will be patient and wait for good setup where the stop is close, also use small size (100-300 share for overnight or longer swing). Finally, I am determined to act on earning plays using my tested system for the Q3 report season.

1. AAPL: CTT between 70 and 76 using tight stops, MA50=70.7, don't trade the mid-range.

2. AEOS: CTT between 40 and 46.8 with tight stops, don't trade the mid range, especially when short-on-top, keep eye on key support around 42 and resistance around 44.5. Overall, the retail sector is a buy-on-pullback case, until the signs of recession become abundant.

3. AMD: S1 on top, entry zone 24.8 (MA50) to 25.5 with MA200=26.5 as stop reference, IT=21.

4. BIDU: CTT between 80/82 and 88/92 use tight stop and small position. watch for key support around MA50=82.4.

5. BRCM: CTT between MA50=28.8 and MA200=31.7 with tight stop, don't trade mid-range.

6. CEPH: L1 on pullback, entry zone 63.8-64.5, CS=63.5, IDS=62.48. IT=67.25 (6 month high and key resistance).

7. COH: CTT-ready, S1 on top but be patient, entry zone 36-37, stop around 37.4, IT=34.

8. COST: watch for Q3 report on Thur Oct.12 before open, the charts favor a short-on-top approach using 52.6 as stop, however, if it breaks 52.6 with volume, should go long use 52.4 as stop ,with IT around 54.

9. CVS: S1 on top, entry zone 30.8 (MA200)-32, stop around MA50=32.8, IT=27.5.

10. DVN: CTT between 58.3 and 63.5/65 use tight stops.

11. ESRX: S1 on top, entry zone 77.5-80, stop 80.5, IT= 69. watch key support around 72 and resistance around 75.

12. MU: S1 on top, entry zone 16 -- 16.75, stop just above 17, IT=14.

13. NTES: S2 on top, entry zone 17.25-18, stop just above 18, IT=15.5, MA50=17.4, MA200=18.6

14. NTRI: speculative short entry 65.5-68, with stop just above 68, IT=58.

13. NVDA: L1 on pullback, entry zone 27.6 (MA50) to 28.2, watch key resistance around 31.3 and then the all time high around 31.8. Is INTC really going to buy it?

14. QCOM: S2 on top, entry zone 37-37.5, CS=37.5, IDS=39.5. MA50=37.3, IT=35

15. RHAT: S1 on top, entry zone 22.8-23.5 (MA50), use MA200=24.3 as stop references, IT=20.

16. SNDK: CTT between 52 and 59.7 using tight stop, don't trade the mid-range.

17. SONS: L1 on pullback, entry zone 4.7 (MA200) to 4.9 (MA50), stop just below 4.7, IT=5.5.

18. STP: CTT between 21.5 and 27, watch for reversal candles when it approaches either boundaries, use tight stop.

19. TIF: CTT-ready, S2 on top use 35.3 as stop, IT=MA50=33; or be more patient, entry zone around 36.5-37, with a stop just above 37.

20. VRTX: watch if it can close above the key 37 level, feel like to place a speculative short here, IDS=40, CS=37.5, IT=33.

21. WFMI: may consider S3 on top, entry zone 64-65.5, with a stop just above 65.5, IT=58.

23. WLT: feel like to take a speculative long postion here around 42, with a stop just below 41, IT=MA50=48.2. It has a good long term support zone between 39-41.

24. WMT: S2 either when it breaks 48 or when it approaches 50, stop just above 50, IT between MA200=46.7 to MA50=47.1

25. X: S1 on top, entry zone 62.5-64.2, stop at 65, IT=56.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Daily calls -- Oct 6, 2006

No pullback by the close, and even NASDAQ is marching towards its spring peak around 2380, except the overbought conditions, can bears find anything to be bearish about? We are looking at a nearly 3-month long rally with no significant pullback here, how much longer can it keep it up? Will tomorrow’s Sept. employment report end the bulls’ party?

  1. AEOS: CTT between 42/34 and 46.8 use tight stops.
  1. CHAP: Keep eyes on resistance levels around 38.2, 39.2 and 39.59 (recent high), and support around 36.8
  1. CHRW: S1 on top, entry zone 46.5-47.5, stop just above 48.
  1. COH: key eyes on it as it approaching key resistance zone between 36.8-37.4.
  1. COST: S2 on top, entry zone 51.8-52.5, stop just above 52.6.
  1. CVS: S1 on top, entry zone 31.5-33, stop just above 33=MA50.
  1. DVN: S1 on top if it approaches 65, stop just above 65.
  1. ESRX: S1 on top when it approaches 80, stop at 80.5.
  1. IDEV: S2 on top just below 6.15, CS=6.16, IDS=6.51
  1. NTES: S2 on top just below 17.25, CS=MA50=17.4, IDS=18
  1. OS: S1 on top, entry zone 49.5-51, stop 52
  1. QCOM: S1 on top as it approaches MA50=37.4, CS=37.5
  1. X: S2 on top, entry zone 62-64, stop 65.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Daily calls Oct. 5, 2006

Wow, talk about bullshit surprises! The rally must have been driving the early bears nuts, and I suspect that we will see those bears capitulate in the next day or two. Even though things cannot get any more bullish than now, I suspect a sizable pullback will occur in days, why? Because the more bullish it gets, the closer the top is, we shall see. Any short-on-top at this point is extremely risky, therefore, small than usual size must be used if I cannon resist a potentially good setup.

AAPL: S2 on top, entry zone 75.8-77, stop above 77.8.

AEOS: released better than estimated SSS in AH, traded down mostly between 45.6 and 46.2. Intraday chart shows large dump, I suspect that the top is very close.

BIDU: CTT between 79 and 85 use tight stops.

CHAP: S2 on top, entry zone 35.3-36.5, stop just above 37, IT=33

COH: S3 on top, entry zone 36-37, stop at 37.5, IT=33

COST: keep eye on key resistance around 52.5.

ESRX: S1 on top, entry zone 79-80, stop 80.51

IDEV: S1 on top just below 6, stop around 6.1, IT=5.6

OS: S1 on top, entry zone 46.7-48, stop just above MA50=48.1

RHAT: S1 on top, entry zone 22.4-23.5, stop just above MA50=23.6

SBUX: S2 on top, entry zone 36.7-38, stop just above 38.

SONS: S2 on top, entry zone 5.4-5.49, stop just above 5.51.

X: S1 on top, entry zone=57-58.4 (MA200), stop just above 58.5.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Daily calls, Oct. 4

Well, after 4 attempts, DOW finally closed at all time high, but that is probably the only thing bulls can brag about it. Even both SP and NASDAQ closed higher, the technicals were not nearly as bullish as the headline numbers.

  1. AAPL: CTT between 70 to 75 use tight stop.
  1. AEOS: watch key resistance around 45.3 and all time high around 45.8, will report SSS tomorrow.
  1. BIDU: L3 on bottom, entry zone 82-83, stop just below 82. Looks like it will test support at 82 tomorrow.
  1. BRCM: L3 on bottom, entry zone-29.2-29.6, stop just below 29.
  1. DVN: watch key support around 59, and then 57,
  1. MRVL: S2 on top, entry zone 17.4-17.9, stop at 18.
  1. NTRI: L3 on bottom, entry zone 57—57.5, stop just below 57. MA50=57.3
  1. NVDA: L3 on pullback, entry zone 27-27.4, stop just below 57, MA50=57.2
  1. OS: S1 on top, entry zone- 45-45.8, stop around 46.8. IT=MA200=43. 3
  1. RHAT: S2 on top, entry zone 21.7-22, stop just above 22. Watch key resistance around 21.4.
  1. SONS: L2 on bottom, entry zone 4.8-4.91, stoop just below 4.75.
  1. STP: CTT-ready, S1 on top, entry zone 26.1-26.7, stop just above 27.
  1. WFMI: S1 on top, entry zone 61 (MA200)-62, stop just above 62, IT=58.5
  1. XRTX: L1 on bottom, entry zone=18.6-19, stop just below 18.5.
  1. ENER: L2 on bottom, entry zone=33.5-- 34.7 (MA50), stop just below 33.2
  1. COGN: L1 on bottom, entry zone 34.8-35.6, stop just below 34.7

Monday, October 02, 2006

Daily Calls -- Oct.2, 2006

Bulls showed signs of exhaustion today, bears just watched for the most part. NASDAQ seems to assert its trend-leading role, this time may be on the way down. Mid-cap (MDY) and small cap (IWM) were even weaker. While bulls yet to get jettery, the daily charts clearly suggest more down side move in the near future.

1. AAPL: CTT between 70 (MA50) and 76 with tight stop.

2. AEOS: S2 on top, entry zone 44.9-45.3, CS=45.3, IDS=45.8, IT=43. It acted stronger than I expected today. BE careful of the SSS number, to be released in Wed AH.

3. BIDU: L2 on bottom, entry zone 82.2-83.8, stop just below 82, IT=88, MA50=82.2.

4. BRCM: L3 on bottom, entry zone 28.5-28.8 (MA50=28.7), stop just below 28.5, IT=31.2. Dropped over 3% to around 29.7 in AH, probably in sync of MRVL's AH Q warning.

4. CHAP: S2 on top, entry zone 34.8-35.2 (MA50), stop 35.6, IT=33.

5. DVN: S2 on top, entry zone1=62.8-63.3, stop 63.51, OR zone2=63.6-64.8, stop 64.01.

6. ENER: L3 on bottom, entry zone1=34.7-35.5, stop just below 34.7, zone2=33.4-34, stop just below 33.3.

7. IDEV: S1 on top, entry zone=5.7-5.95, stop just above 6, IT=MA200=5.3

8. MRVL: S1 on top, entry zone 15.8-16.7, stop around 17.3. Warning Q3 in AH, traded heavily mostly between 16.7 and 15.6, closed around 15.8. There is no support below 16.7, it is a breaking-down case.

9. NVDA: L3 on bottom, entry zone 27.2 (MA50) to 27.6, IT=29.5

10. RIMM: S3 on top when it approaches 102, stop at 103,

11. SONS: L2 on bottom, entry zone 4.9-5.05, day trading IT=5.24, stop just below 4.9.

12. XRTX: L2 on bottom, entry zone 18-18.5, stop 17.5.

13. WFMI: CTT between 56 and 61 with tight stop. MA50=57.1

14. COGN: L2 on bottom, entry zone 34.8-35.5, stop just below 34. IT=37.