Saturday, September 30, 2006

Weekly Calls, Oct. 2-6, 2006

Trading call evaluation results:

I have conducted a preliminary evaluation of the trading calls I made since Sept. 6 (the first post on this site), and here are the results:

1. Daily calls: winning calls/lossing calls=3.5, meaning for every losing call, there are 3.5 winning calls; winning call percentage 37.2%, lossing call %10.6, un-triggered calls: 50.5%.

2. Weekly calls: winning calls/lossing calls=1.3; winning call percentage: 38.5%, lossing calls: 29.8%; un-triggered calls: 30.6.

Some noticible points: my daily calls have a much better W/L ratio than the weekly ones, which were pretty much a flip-flop; around 50% of the daily trading calls were un-triggered, most of which were in right direction, but the entry-zone never reached.

I will continue evaluate my trading calls through the end of this year as a systematic examination of my trading system.

On the major indices:

It has been a very bullish week for all major indices as both SP500 and DOW made fresh highs, while NASDAQ also gained nearly 1.8%. On the weekly charts, all indices are poised for more gains, even though there are signes of diminishing momentum. It is also interesting that in the past 8 weeks, all major indices have had a neat alternated up-then-down weekly pattern. On the daily chart, the indices has stalled in the last 3 sessions of the week, and there are clear bearish divergences for all indices. Look more closely, DOW was struggling to break the all-time high, and failed in 3 attempts; NASDAQ ran into the resistance as it enters the Jan-May 2006 trading range. It is also worth to mention that right now for NASDAQ, MA50 and MA200 has just converged (2183.6), will the Golden Cross happen next week or there comes the turning point?

For next week, my overall bias for the major indices is mildly bearish. Basically, I see the market has priced in all good news, while ignoring the possibility of "hard-landing". In addition, the market has risen significantly in the past 10 weeks, and even they are going to rise further, somekind of consolidation/pullback is very likely. However, agressive shorting should be avoided at this junction as the technicals show very little bearish strength, in other words, we need a lot of signals to confirm the full-scale bearishness.

1. AAPL: S3 on top, entry zone 77-77.77, stop at 78, IT=74. Weekly chart points to further upside, but daily chart shows possible short-term top around 77.5.

2. ADI: S1 on top when it approaches MA50=30.5, CS=31, IDS=32, IT=28.

3. AEOS: S2 on top, entry zone 44.4-45, CS=45.3, IDS=45.8, IT=42. Both daily and weekly charts show strong bearish reversal signals. Its almost 10 straight up week may come to the end as the retail sector consolidate recent gains.

4. AMD: S1 on top, entry zone 24.9 (MA50)-25.8, stop around MA200=26.6, IT=23.7.

5. ANF: S2 on top, entry zone 70.5-71.5, IDS=72.5, CS=72., IT=67. Same technicals as AEOS.

6. BIDU: CTT between 82 and 93 use tight stops, don't play the mid-range, be patient.

7. BRCM: L2 on pullback, entry zone 28.7-29.3, IDS around MA50=28.6, IT=MA200=31.8.

8. COST: S1 on top, entry zone 51.4 (MA200) to 52.5, IDS just above 52.6, IT=47.

9. CTRP: CTT between 41.9 and 50 with a tight stop, don't trade the mid-range. The test of MA200=43.4 has been successulf in 3 attempts, and the downward momentum is diminishing, but there no strong indicator of immediate up turn just yet.

10. DVN: S2 on top when it approaches 65, stop just above 65, IT=60. how far can the rebound go here?

11. ENER: L3 on pullback, entry zone 35.5-36.4, IDS=34.98, CS=35.4, IT=39.

12. ESRX: S1 on top, entry zone 76.6-79, stop IDS=80.2, CS=79.6, IT=72. MA200=76.7, MA50=79.5

13. NTRI: CTT between 60 and 66 with a tight stop, don't trade the mid range.

14. NVDA: S3 on top, entry zone 30-31, stop at 31.3, IT=27.5.

15. OCR: CTT ready (against primary trend). L3 on bottom, entry zone 42.6-43.1, CS=42.48, IDS=42.2, IT=MA50=44.8.

16. RHAT: S1 on top, entry zone 22-22.8, stop 23, IT=20.

17. SNDK: CTT between 49 and 55/56.5 with a tight stop,

18. SONS: L1 on pullback, entry zone 4.95-5.1, stop just below MA50=4.9, IT=5.5; may also consider S3 on top, entry zone 5.6-5.7, stop just above 5.7.

19. WFMI: S1 on top, entry zone 61 (MA200)-61.8, stop=61.2, IT around MA50=57.1.

20. X: S1 on top, entry zone 59-60.5, CS=60, IDS=60.8, IT=55, MA200=58.5, MA50=59.6.

21. XRTX: L2 on bottom, entry zone 18.5-19, stop just below 18.5, IT around MA50=20.3.

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Daily calls Sept. 29, 2006

The bulls managed to put together the fourth straight up day, with DOW closed at just below the all-time high close, but there are signs of diminishing bullishness. Tomorrow is the last day of the month/quater, and I wonder if it will hold up by the end of tomorrow.

1. AAPL: CTT between 77.5 and 75.8 with tight stop.

2. SNDK: S1 on top, entry zone 53.5-54.8, stop 55, MA200-53.7., IT=50

3. XRTX: L1 when it breaks 19.6 or L1 on bottom around 18, stop 17.5. IT=20.5

4. ENER: L1 on pullback, entry zone 36.5-37.5, MA200=37,

5. TIBX: reported Q3 in AH, missed rev, traded lightly between 8.03 and 8.55. Key levels: 7.5, 7.9 (MA200), 8, 8.1 (MA50), 8.8, 8.89 (close), 9.2

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Daily Calls Sept. 28, 2007

The market rallied early but almost closed in red by the end of the day. DOW seems determined to high all time high, but the tech sector did not lend a helping hand. At this point, bulls are tired to say the least, and I am not sure how much end-of-quarter-window-dressing buying still left to go. Long at this stage, especially on the break-outs, carries very poor risk/reward ratio, and short-on-top, if done with patience and proper risk-control, could provide a good short-term profit should the market pulls back in early Oct.

1. AAPL: S3 on top, entry zone 76.6-77.3, stop 77.5-77.8, IT=74.5; may also consider L2 on bottom, entry zone 73.8-74.5, stop around 73.7.

2. AKAM: consider CTT between 45.5 and 49.5 with very tight stop.

3. AMD: S2 on top, entry zone 25.8-26.5, stop 26.8-27; IT=24.51

4. BIDU: L2 on pullback when it approaches 85/82, use small size!

5. CHAP: S1 on top when ti approaches MA50=35.4, stop 36.2.

6. DVN: S2 on top when it approaches MA50=62.9, entry zone 62.9-64.5, stop around 65, be patient. IT=59.

7. ESRX: S1 on top when it appoaches 78, CS=78.5, IDS=MA50=79.9. MA200=76.7. If it breaks 76.4 or closes below that, it may test 73-75.

8. SONS: CTT between 5.03 and 5.5.

9. X: S1 on top, entry zone 59-59.8, stop 60-60.8,

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Daily Call Sept. 27.2006

The bulls marched on in force today, and both DOW and SP500 closed above recent highs with bullish candle formations. The bias for the rest of the week is on the upside as the Q3 comes to the end. But things are getting so bullish that somehow I have a hunch that that will be some sharp pullbacks in the next 2-4 weeks.

1. AAPL: L2 on pullback, entry zone 76.5-77.2, stop just below 76. It is breaking out.

2. AEOS: L2 on pullback, entry zone 44.1-44.5, stop at 43.8.

3. AKAM: L2 on pullback, entry zone 47.2-47.5, stop just below 47. IT=50

4. BIDU: L1 on pullback, entry zone 86-87, stop just below 85.

5. CEPH: L1 on pullback, entry zone 59.2-59.8, stop just below 58.5.

6. CHAP: S1 on top as it approaches MA50=35.4, IDS=37, CS=35.6.

7. CTRP: L3 on bottom when it re-test MA200=43.4, IDS=42, CDS=42.4

8. DVN: S2 on top what it approaches MA50=62.9, IDS=65, CS=63

9. ESRX: S2 on top when it approaches 80, stop around 80.3

10. SONS: CTT between 5.05 and 5.7.

11. X: S1 on top, entry zone 58.8-60, CS=60, IDS=60.6. MA200=58.5, MA50=59.9

12. CHAP; S2 on top as it approaches MA50=35.4, IDS=37, CS=35.5.

13. RHAT: reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates on rev, but earning hit by expenses. Traded mostly between 23 and 25. Key levels: 21.75, 22.5, 23.25, 24, 24.3 (MA50), 24.6 (MA200), 25 (AH resistance), 26.32 (day close), 26.4 (day and recent high).

Monday, September 25, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 26, 2006

The market overcame the early weakness and rebounded forcefully to close above last Friday’s high, with SP500 closed at new high. By doing so, very bullish candle formed for the major indices and many stocks, suggesting an imminent break-out. The question is, if the indicies/stocks do break-out broadly tomorrow, should longs play the break-out or at lighten up any long positions? Personally, I feel that the reward/risk ratio is not attractive for the break-out long play, however, short-on-top at this stage seems also very risky. Hmm, dilemma, dilemma, dilemma….

1. AAPL: L1 on pullback, entry zone 74.74.5, stop 73.7, IT= 76.

2. AKAM: L1 on pullback, entry zone 47.2-47.8, stop just below 47.

3. BRCM: L2 on pullback, entry zone 29.2-29.6, stop just below 29, IT=31.

4. CHAP: S1 on rebound, entry zone 33.3-33.9, stop 35-MA50=35.4

5. COST: S3 on top as it approaches 52.5 use a tight stop around 52.65, IT=50

6. CTRP: L3 on bottom as it retests MA200=43.4, IDS=42, IT=46.

7. DVN: L3 on bottom, entry zone 57.2-58.5, stop just below 57, IT=62

8. ESRX: CTT between 73 and 80 use tight stop.

9. MU: S3 on top, entry zone 18-18.5, stop around 18.7, IT=MA50=16.8

10. OS: S2 on top, entry zone 47-48, stop around MA50=48.4, IT=MA200=43.1

11. RHAT: L1 on pullback, entry zone 25.40-25.85, stop 25.1, IT=27.3.

12. SONS: L1 on pullback, entry zone 5.25-5.4, stop 5.18; IT=5.75. watch for possible break-out (5.75).

13. STP: L1 on pullback, entry zone 23.6-24.2, stop around 23.3, IT around 26.

Saturday, September 23, 2006

Weekly Calls Sept. 25-29

I have just spent some time to "grade" my previous trading calls, and will post the stats soon. Basically, I want to have a good idea regarding the quality and reliablity of my trading calls.

Starting this week, I will conscienously reduce the number of trading call as an effort to eliminiate unnecessary or technically less-than-sound trading calls. Doing so obviously will result in some missing opportunities, but that will be greatly offset by the reduction in risk and unwanted frustrations out of fertile efforts.

On the market:

Two day drop may have put the bulls on defense, but the near-term trend is still up solidly. At this stage, it is not a good time for either bulls or bears to initiate new positions. For bulls, NASDAQ support around 2200 and then MA200=2180 are crucial. For bears, short the rebound might give a better risk/reward ratio as long as the indices stay below the pevoius hights. Overall, the risk of next week is probably on the down side as multiple indicators suggesting a further pullback from the top before the uptrend can be resumed.

1. AAPL: L2 on pullback, entry zone 69-71, stop 68.5, IT=75

2. ADI: S2 on top, entry zone 31-31.5, stop 32, IT=28.5

3. AEOS: L2 on pullback, entry zone 42-42.5, stop 41.8, IT=45

4. AKAM: L2 on pullback, entry zone 42-43, stop, 41.9, IT=48

5. AMD: L3 on pullback, entry zone 25-25.8, stop=MA50=24.7, IT=27.5

6. ANF: L3 on pullback, entry zone around 67, stop 65.5, IT=71

7. BIDU: CTT between 82 and 92 with tight stop,

8. COST: S2 on top, entry zone 52-52.5 with a tight stop just above 52.5, IT=48.5

9. CTRP: L2 on pullback around MA200=43.3, CS=43, IDS=42, It=50

10. DVN: L3 on pullback as it approaches 59 or even 57, with a tight stop, IT=64.

11. ENER: L3 on pullback as it approaches 32, stop around 31.5, IT=35

12. ESRX: S1 on top around 81.5, stop just above 82, IT=MA200=76.7

13. MEDX: L3 on bottom near 10, stop at 9.88, IT=11

14. MU: S2 on top around 18, stop around 18.7, ITaround MA50=16.8

15. NCTY: S1 on top around 25, stop at 26.2, IT=21

16. NTES: S1 on top when it approaches 16.5, stop around 17, IT=14. strong support around 15

17. NVDA: L1 on bottom around 28, stop around 27.5, IT=31.

18. RIMM: L2 on bottom when it approaches 83.5 stop at 83, It=89.

19. SNDK: L2 on bottom when it approaches MA50=53.6, stop around MA200=52.6, IT=58.

20. SONS: L1 on bottom around 5.05, CS=4.95, IT=5.68. Key resistance at 5.5 and strong support around 5.02.

21. TIBX: L2 on bottom around 8.5 with a stop just below 8.4, IT=9.2

22. UNH: S1 on top when it approaches MA200=50.7, CS=51, IDS=52, IT=47

23. URBN: L2 on bottom around 17.5, stop just below 17, IT=19.

24. X: S1 on top when it approaches 59.25, stop 60.8, IT=53.


Thursday, September 21, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 22, 2006

Well, the market acted pretty much like I suspected, the bears came out pretty strong while the bulls showed some weakness. Today's action put a bearish engulfing candle on major indices and a lot of stocks, if another strong follow-through down day occurs within next 1-5 days, we are possibly looking at double top for SP500, DOW and many stocks. At this stage, I expect bulls to fight back before giving up, so it is likely to be choppy in the next few days.

1. AEOS: S1 on top around 43.8, CS=44, IDS=44.6, IT=42.

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2. ANF: S1 on top around 70, CS=70, IDS=71, IT=67

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3. COST: S1 on top around 51-51.4 (MA200), CS=51.4, IDS=52.5.

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4. DVN: CTT between 65 and 59, MA200=60.4

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5. ESRX: S1 on top when it approaches 83, CS=83.25, IDS=83.6

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6. MRVL: S1 on top around 20, CS=20, IDS=20.5

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7. SUBX: S1 on top around 34.5, CS=34.5, IDS=35

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8. SONS: L1 on pullback only in 5.2-5.3 region with a stop just below 5.15. If the market falls dramatically, look for entry between 5.02-5.15 with a stop just below 4.95.

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9. XRTX: L1 on pullback use 19.5 as stop, IT=20.5-21.

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10. COGN: earning play, reported in AH, beat and raised guidance, traded between 31.7 and 34.9, but mostly between 32.81 and 34.3 and closed around 34.7. Key levels: 32.5, 32.8, 33.2(MA200), 34.14, 34.3, 34.9 (AH and recent high), 35.5, 37.


Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 21, 2006

It was some weird 2:45 hr after the FOMC meeting, the market was sold down in large volumes right after the announcement for about an hour (see intra-day charts of SPY, QQQQ and DIA), but selling dried out and bulls managed to recover most of the loss with significantly weaker volume into the close. As I expected, the FOMC decision did not provide fuel for more upside, however, it seems that bears were also hesitate to attack. I think tomorrow will be a crucial day, whoever wins the battle with significant advantage will determine the near-term market trend. My hunch is if bulls cannot move it any higher, bears will step in.

1. BIDU: for day trading, CTT between 84.5 and 88.5. Also, L2 on bottom when it approaches 82 can be considered, IDS=MA50=80.

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2. COST: it is set to test key resistance around 52.5, the next one will be 54.1.

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3. DVN: day-trading, consider S1 on top use 65 as stop, also L3 on bottom when it approaches MA200=60.4, CS=60, IDS=59. I think the first test of MA200 will bounce off.

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4. ENER: CTT between MA50=34.5 and MA200=37.1

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5. NTES: looks like it is breaking down, S1 on top use 17 as stop.

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6. SBUX: watch the key resistance zone between 35.5 and 36.

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7. SONS: L1 on pullback use 5.3 as stop reference. Missed the big move today.

8. TIBX: L1 on pullback use 8.8 as stop.

9. WFMI: watch key resistance at MA200=61.1, next stop will be around 64.

10. XRTX: earning play, reported Q3 in AH, beat estimates but lowered Q4 guidance, traded between 16.7 and 19, but mostly between 17.7 and 18.5, closed around 18.45. Key levels: 16.7, 17.5, 17.7, 18.5, 19.4, 19.7, MA50=20.6

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 20, 2006

Well, the bears did come out in force today, but bulls fought back hard and managed to trim more than half of the loss by the close. However, today's action triggered many bearish reversal signals. Tomorrow is a big day as FOMC will release its decision in the afternoon. As I mentioned in the weekly call, I suspect whatever it is, the FOMC decision may not provide fuels for signficant upside move at this stage, therefore, pay more attention to possible short-on-top set ups.

1. AAPL: CTT between 71.4 and 75.

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2. ADI: S1 on top when it approaches 31.5, CS=31.5, IDS=32.1

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3. AKAM: L3 on pullback when it approaches 42 or 40, MA50=39.1.

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4. BIDU: L1 on pullback when it approaches 82, CS=81.5, IDS=MA50=79.7.

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5. COST: watch for key resistance around 52.5, I expect first intra-day test will fail. If it closes above 52.5, it will test next resistance around 54.

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6. EBAY: S1 on top if there is any post-FOMC rally use 27.25 as stop.

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7. MRVL: may take a speculative short when it approaches 21 use 21.3 as stop

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8. NTAP: L1 on pullback, entry zone 34.2 to 35.

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9. NTRI: watch for possible resuming of upside when it breaks 60.2., but IT only around 62.

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10. RIMM: L3 on pullback use 83 as stop references, IT=88

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11. SBUX: watch for key resistance zone between 35-35.5

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12. SNDK: CTT between 56.5 and 61??

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13. SONS: L1 on pullbacks when it approaches 5.05, CS=4.98, IDS=4.7, looks like it is breaking out.

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14. URBN: looks like it is ready to have another leg up, watch key support around 16.75, MA50=16.2.

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15. YHOO: S1 on to when it approaches 26.6, CS=IDS=27.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 18, 2006

Well, bears started to show up today, but is this a prelude to a full-scale attack or just a wimpy posture?

1. AAPL: current short position stop at 74.5, need bearish confirmation with a break of 73.3, support at 71.5 and 72.5.

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2. BIDU: bears showing up in 90-92 region.

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3. EBAY: S1 on top when it approaches 27.5 use 28 as stop, IT=25.

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4. TIF: S1 on top when it approaches 34, CS=34.25, IDS=34.8.

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Sunday, September 17, 2006

Weekly Calls: Sept. 18-- 22

Reflections on the trading calls for the past 2 months

** On major indicies

I have been stubburnly bearish for the past 2 months, obsessed by the sharp decline and repeatedly failed rebound between mid-May and end of July, and perhaps over-confident about the historic seasonal patterns. The fact is that the major indices advaced substantially in the past 8 weeks, especially the NASDAQ with a nearly 10% gain. Therefore it is clear that my overall assessment of the market trend has been wrong, especially considering that my trading time frame is mostly 1-5 days.

** On the short-on-top approaches

In the past 2-month, I have made lot of short-on-top calls on those stocks that were in clear down trend (below MA50, MA200 etc.). Most of those calls would have been losing trades if the positions were held longer than 2-3 days. The take-home lessons are:

** when the market is in clear up-trend, trading against the trend, even conforms the primary trend of the underlying stock, is risky. Quick profit-taking is needed for such trades.

** When trading against strong overall market trend, short-on-top when a strock is approaching strong technical levels (such as MA50, MA200) using a tight stop without clear bearish signals is very risky.

** Trading against sector trend must be avoided even if the trades conform the primarily trend of the targeted stocks (case in point, the retaily sector, such as COH, SBUX, etc.).

** Trading against both the market trend and the stock trend, even if with the support of some technical indicators must be avoided, because you are fighting the tides, and you are more likely to be swept away then catching something big.

On the market for the coming week

The last week's action moved the major indices just below their critical levels: both DOW and SP500 are only a stone-throw-away from their multi-year high, and NASDAQ closed just below the low boundary of the Jan-May trading range. On the weekly chart, they are all poised to gain more ground, on the daily charts, however, last Friday's action left bearish a candle formation and some bearish reversal signals for all major indices. Looking ahead, next Wed's FOMC decision is likely to impact the near-term trend of the market. My gut feeling is that all the bullish factors on interest rates are now priced in, and all bearish factors on the possible recession are mostly dismissed, therefore, I don't see FOMC decision fuels more upside movement, on the contrary, it might be a sell-the-news event. The down side risk for the next week or 2 is further increased on the major indices advanced a great deal in the last 2 months, and vulnerable for profit-taking to say the least.

Based on above analysis, I have a bearish bias towards the market for the next week, in particular, I will look for short set up on the stocks whose primary trend is bearish, AND, whose daily charts start to show bearish top-reversal signals. To be caustious, I should use small positions to begin with and implement tight-stop, however, when the trend-reveral is confirmed, I may add more to the winning positions.

1. ADBE: S1 either when it approaches 38 use 38.2 as stop, OR when it breaks 36.5 use 37 as stop, IT=34.5.

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2. ADI: S1 on top when it approaches 32, CS=32.1, IDS=32.6, IT=30.

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3. AEOS: currently in short around 42.4, IDS=43. S2 on top when it approaches 42.9 or when it breaks 41.8 or closed below 42 with a bearish candle, IT=40.5. This stock has gained over 15% in the past 5 weeks, however, it clearly under-performed the market and the sector for most of the last week, with clear selling pressure just below the all time high near 43. Tremendous insider sells in the recent weeks, especially a nearly 2 M share dumping by its CEO in the past week. I am playing for a quick pull-back here to possibly as low as 38.5.

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4. AKAM: it gained near 15% for the past week along on a couple of upgrades, and it becomes a clear momentum play. The stock is clearly overbought, wait for a bearish reversal on top (possible around 50?), and a quick pull back to 42.

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5. AMD: CTT-ready, S1 on top or when it breaks or closes below 26.36 with a bearish candle, CS=27, IDS=27.7, IT=23.5. It has gained over 40% in the past 8 weeks! too fast too much?

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6. BIDU: S3-on-top, look for a speculative short position (100 share) as it approaches key resistance zone between 90-94, IT around 82. it has gained nearly 20% in the past 8 weeks.

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7. CHRW: S2 on top when it approaches 47 or when it breaks/closes below 45 with bearish candles, IT=42, CS=46.7, IDS=47.5.

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8. COST: S2 on top when it approaches MA200=51.5, CS=MA200, IDS=52.5, IT=48.5.

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9. ESRX: consider CTT whenever it approaches the boundaries of its 5-week tight trading range (80.4 and 85), BUT trade along the break-out when it moves out of this range. It is showing some early bearish signs.

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10. MOT: highest 52-wk close and poised for more gain, but how much more before a quick pull back to at least 24?

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11. NTAP: S3 on top when it approaches 34.5, IDS=35, IT=MA200=31.9. It has noticebly underperformed NASDAQ in the past 3 weeks and signs of top in this region.

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12. NTRI: CTT-ready. CS=61, IDS=62.5, IT=MA50=55.

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13. SBUX: may consider S3 on top when it approaches 35.5, CS=36, IDS=36.7, IT=31.30.

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14. SNDK: is it putting on the short-term double top around 59.65? Take a small stab near 59.5? CS=59.7, IDS=60, IT=53.6.

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15. TIBX: is it putting up another top just below 9? S2 on top around 8.65, CS=8.8, IDS=9.01, IT=8.

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16. TIF: Is it turned around here? may consider S3 on top when it approaches 36, use 36.5 as stop reference, It=34, MA200=34.1.

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17. WFMI: S2 on top, IDS=59.25, IT=54. or be more patient, when it approache MA200=61.2.

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18. WLT: S1 on top when it approaches MA50=51.6, IDS=MA200=53.5, IT=46, and could be a lot more if the commodities are really breaking down.

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19. WMT: CTT-almost ready, S3 on top when it approaches 48.6 use 49 as stop, IT=MA200=46.4. BE more patient if the GAS/OIL continue to decline.

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20. WSM: CTT-ready, S2 on top, CS=32.6, IDS=33, IT=29.5.

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Thursday, September 14, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 15, 2006

Bulls should be happy that despite big gains in the past few days, market went down only slightly. Tomorrow could be a violent day as the important CPI number will be released on top of the expiration of quadruple options.

1. ADBE: earning play, reported Q3 in AH, beat the estimates, but Q4 is not as strong. Traded mostly between 35.5 and 36.5, with strong AH support at 35.5 and 36, and resistance at 36.5. Closed around 36.25. Key levels: 34.5 (aug high), 35, 35.5, 36, 36.5, 37.5, around 39.

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2. AEOS: S1 on top use 43 as stop or when it breaks 42. Top reversal signals clear, IT=38.5.

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3. AKAM: signs of big-boys selling into the strength today, it is in very overbought conditions, but when the pullback will happen?

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4. LTON: S1 on top use 5.9 as stop, IT=4.8.

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5. NTRI: CTT ready, S1 on top use 62.1 as stop. IT=55.

@@ C

6. TIF: CTT-ready, S1 on top use MA200=34.1 as stop reference.

@@ F

7. WFMI: CTT-ready, S1 on top, CS=58, IDS=59.25, IT=55.

@@ B

8. WMT: S2 on top use 48.7 as stop, especially if CPI number is bad.


Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 14, 2006

The bulls march on, and bears, eh, any bear left?

1. AAPL: break-out, but strength is questionable. L3 on pullback use 72.3 as stop.

@@ C

2. AEOS: overbought begets overbought, target for speculative short around 45?

@@ C

3. CHRW: S3 on top when it approaches today's high at 47.48, CS=47.5, IDS=48.65, IT=43.

@@ C

4. NTRI: S2 on top around 62, stop around 65, IT=55, 100 shares. extremely overbought, and shorts got squeezed (short interests near 39%).

@@ B

5. SBUX: S2 on top as it approaches 34, CS=IDS=34.5, IT=31.5.

@@ C

6. SNDK: S2 on top use 59 as stop, It=55, mini- double top? It went against NASDAQ today and closed badly. support also around 56.5. currently short at 57.89, first confirmation tomorrow is the break of 57.65 (today's low).

@@ F

7. TIF: is it really going to break MA200=34.1? S2 on top around 34.1 use 34.8 as stop? IT=32.

@@ C

8. TXN: S2 on top around 32.5, stop at 32.75, IT=31.

@@ C

9. WFMI: S2 on top as it approaches 61 use MA200=61.2 as stop, IT=55.

@@ C

10. WMT: either S1 on top use 48.7 as stop or when it breaks 47.5, IT=46.

@@ C

11. WSM: S2 on top use 32.5 as stop, IT=30.

@@ B

12. X: S2 on top use MA50=60.9 as stop, IT=57.

@@ C

13. Earning play: XLNX: lower Q3 guidance in AH, traded between 21 and 21.75 and closed around 21.7. strong support at 21, quick stop at 21.85, final stop at 22.35, strong support at 21.4 and 21.5 in AH. Strong down trend stock, but, is the bad news already priced in???

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 13, 2006

It probably cannot get more bullish about today's action: NASDAQ rallied on heaviest volume in the last few weeks and closed at a new 3 month high, while both DOW and SP500 are only about a little over 1% from the May peak. But somehow, I don't feel such bullishness. Am I too much sold on the Sept/Oct seasonability weakness or possible recession talks? Or because of triple divergence that the "smartcalls" has pointed out for all major indices? Or maybe the fact that NASDAQ is still lagging far behind, about 160 points away from this May peak? I don't really know. What I do know that at this stage, I feel too risky to chase the bulls, on the other hand, I probably should be extra careful openning any short positions.

1. AAPL: SOLD ON NEWS! well, if it were not for the late surge in major indices, it might have closed below 71.5. Bearish money flow divergence. CTT-ready, S2 on top use 73.5 as stop if opens lower, or 74 as stop if it gaps up with indices, or S1 when it breaks 71.4, IT=69.7.

@@ F

2. ADI: S3 on top when it approaches 32, CS=32.5, IDS=33.5, MA200=34

@@ C

3. AEOS: extended overbought condition, consider S2 on top between 43 and 45, IT=38.5

@@ C

4. AMD: stop just shy of MA200=26.7, will it hold tomorrow?

5. ANF: consider a speculative short position as it approaches 70, CS=70, IDS=71, IT=65.

@@ C

6. BRCM: S3 on top as it enters key resistance zone from 29 to 29.7, CS=30.35, IDS=31, IT=26

@@ C

7. CHRW: S2 on top, CS=47, IDS=48.7. Watch how it approaches MA50=46.1, It=42.

@@ B

8. COH: S2 on top when it enters 35-35.6, IDS=36, IT=31

@@ C

9. COST: S1 on when it approaches MA200=51.5, CS=51.5, IDS=52.5, IT=47.

@@ C

10. MOT: watch keey resistance just below 25 as it is approaches 52-wk high.

11. MRVL: consider S2 on top as it approaches 21, use 21.6 as stop.

@@ C

12. NTRI: some short squeeze going on here, watch it approaches 61-62 resistance zone. IT=55.

@@ C

13. NVDA: watch it approaches key resistance zone 29.5-30, IT=27.

14. SBUX: S2 on top as it approaches 33 (MA200), CS=33, IDS=34.5, IT=31

@@ F

15. TIF: watch as it approaches MA200=34.1, IDS=34.8, IT=31.25.

@@ C

16. TXN: watch as it approache key resistance zone 32.8-33.34.

@@ C

17. WFMI: S2 on top when it approaches 60, IDS=MA200=61.3, IT=54

@@ C

18. WMT: S2 on top as it approaches 48.75, IDS=49.2, IT=MA200=46.3

19. WSM: S2 on top as it approaches MA50=32.3, IDS=35, IT=30.

20. X: S2 on top as it approaches MA50=60.9, CS=61., IT=57.

Monday, September 11, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 11, 2006

The bulls made a stance today and the major indices, especially NASDAQ, had a good bullish reversal in the first half of the trading session, and the overall volume was above the 3 wk average. On the other hand, all major indices topped out just before 2 pm and steadily trended down till the close, AND, the NASDAQ had to settle below MA200. I am neutral for tomorrow's overall market, and I am not convinced yet that the market is ready to move much higher from the current level.

1. AAPL: L3 on pullback, CS=IDS=69.7. Watch key resistance just below 74. Tomorrow is a big day for AAPL, we shall see if the market will sell on news.

@@ B

2. AKS: S1 on top around 12.6, CS=12.7, IDS=13, IT=12.1 (MA200).

@@ B

3. CHRW: S3 on top when it approaches MA50=46.1, CS=45.5, IDS=47. It seems made a reversal today, but I am not convinced that it did.

@@ C

4. ESRX: S3 on top when it approaches 85, CS=IDS=85.1. The support zone between 80.4 and 80.9 worked again today.

@@ C

5. MOT: is it ready to break out the 6 mo high at 24.24? and then 9 mo high at 24.67, and finally 52 wk high around 24.99? watch closely for CTT setup as it is near the top of 6, 9 and 12 month trading range.

6. MU: get ready for a short set-up as it approaches 20, IT=17.51. Look at its 9 month chart, whenever it hit a high, it will subsequently pullback over 10%, the market/NASDAQ is really NOT in a strong bullish trend, and I don't see why the current ascend won't pullback.

@@ A

7. NTRI: L1 on pullback, CS=MA50=54.1, IDS=53.5, IT=61.

@@ A

8. RBAK: Looks like a testing of 9 month low at 12.4 is likely, and if that fails, it may fall to 11.5, with short interests at 1 yr high (16% of float), I will look for a quick bottom fishing., IT=14.

@@ C

9. SNDK: CTT between 53.6 and 59.7, calculate the risk/reward ratio before entering,

@@ C

10. TXN: chart points to more upside, but traded down after Q3 update, AH low around 31.22, AH high around 32, closed around 31.5. Stop for the current short position=32.9, but if it breaks 30.5, watch out below.

@@ E

11. WFMI: watch for key resistance around 55.5 (MA50), if it breaks that, it may move up to test the MA200 around 61.3.

@@ A

12. X: S1 on top when it approachs MA200=58.6, CS=59, IDS=59.3, IT=54.

@@ B

Saturday, September 09, 2006

Weekly Calls: Sept. 11 -- 15

On Major Indices:

Both weekly and daily charts clearly indicate that the 4-wk long rebound is stalled to say the least. NASDAQ closed below MA200 (2175) again. This Friday's action, however, may give bulls the hope that the overbought correction is nearly done. Unless NASDAQ closes above MA200 with a bullish candle, I think that the short-term risk is on the downside. Overall, I expect market to be range-bound until the FOMC decision on Sept. 20. If that is case, day-trading or overnight swing should be favored over 3-day or longer swing trade, and short-on-top or long-on-bottom based on key S/R levels should be favored over trading break-outs.

1. AAPL: L2 on bottom, CS=70, IDS=69.7, IT=73.7. While daily chart shows possible top around the 6 mo high, the weekly chart is very bullish. The wild card is next Tue meeting, if the new products disappoint, if could quickly retreat to 66/67.

@@ B

2. ADBE: S2 on top when it approaches 33, CS=MA200=32.4, IDS=33.1, IT=29.

@@ F (great earning report)

3. ADI: S2 on top when it approaches MA50=30.6, CS=30.6, IDS=31, IT=28.3.

@@ F

4. AEOS: look for top and a quick pullback, IT=38.5. The stock is showing signs of bearishing divergence, and it is overbought. but be patient and use tight stop when shorting such a bullish stocks, intra-day strong bearish reversal signals are required.

@@ F

5. AMD: I suspect that it will be ranged bounded near-term between MA200=26.7 and MA50=23.7. CTT when it approaches the boundaries use very tight stop and trade along the break-out when either boundaries is breached.

@@ B

6. BRCM: S2 on top when it approaches MA50=28.3, CS=MA50, IDS=29.2, IT=24.5.

@@ F

7. CHRW: S1 on top when it approaches 45, CS=45.1, IDS=MA50=46.2, IT=42, may breaking down.

@@ F

8. ESRX: consider CTT between 85 and MA50=79 or MA200=76.1.

@@ B

9. MOT: Consider CTT between 22.2 and 24.25 with very tight stop.

@@ F

10. NTAP: Is it ready to dive or break out to the upside? currently holding short position (33.89), CS=34.3, IDS=34.81, IT=MA50=32.5.

@@ B

11. QCOM: S2 on top when it approaches MA50=37.8, CS=38, IDS=38.5, IT=35.5.

@@ B

12. RBAK: L3 on bottom use 12.3 as stop? further decline is likely based on the weekly chart, but will the big wins in Thailand/China make this a buy-on-bottom play worthwhile?

@@ C

13. SBUX: CTT between 29.5 and MA50=32.3.

@@ F

14. SNDK: S3 on top, CS=57.6, IDS=56.7, IT=MA200=52.1. Its weekly chart makes a good case of near term top after nearly 6 weeks rebound.

@@ F

15. TXN: S1 on top, CS=32, IDS=32.51, IT=29.8.

@@ F

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 8, 2006

Up till 1:50 PM, I thought the bulls were going to recover, but it went down hill since. As the second day of deline, today's volume increased noticibly over yesterday. However, bulls were far from giving up here, and I expect they continue to fight. Even though the market is unlike to go straight down here, I believe that the short-term top is in, the question now is how low will NASDAQ go? I see a good support zone between 2115 to 2136. My overall short bias is on the short side, however, short on top approach is preferred to reduce the risk.

1. AAPL: L2 on pullback use 71.5 as stop, no chase, watch if it can break the resistance zone between 73.5-73.8

@@ Grade: B

2. ADBE: S2 on top around 32.25, CS=32.7, IDS=33, IT=29.

@@ B

3. AMZN: S2 on top around MA50=30.5, CS=30.64, IDS=31, IT=29.

@@ F

4. BRCM: S2 on top only when it approaches 27.4, CS=MA50=28.4, IT=25. OR L3 on bottom when it approaches 25 use 24.7 as stop, IT=28. It closes just above the key support around 26.2.

@@ C

5. CHRW: S2 on top as it approaches 45, CS=45.5, IDS=MA50=46.3, IT=42. It closed barely above MA200=43.7.

@@ C

6. ELN: L2 on bottom as it approaches 15, CS=15, IDS=MA200=14.6, IT=16.5. Watch key support around 15.5 (also MA50).

@@ B

7. MOT: may consider S3 on top around 23.5, CS=23.9, IDS=24.2, IT=21.8

@@ E

8. NTAP: S2 on top around 33.9, CS=34.25, IDS=34.82, IT=32.

@@ E

9. QCOM: S2 on top around 37.5, CS=38, IDS=38.5, IT=35.5

@@ B

10. RHAT: S2 on top around 23.2, CS=23.5, IDS=24, IT=21.8

@@ B

11. SNDK: S2 on top only when it enters 56.3-57.3 zone use 57.6 as stop, IT=MA200=52.

@@ E

12. TXN: S1 on top when it approaches 31, CS=31, IDS=31.3.

@@ F

13. WLT: S2 on top when it approaches MA200=53.7, CS=54, IDS=55.7.

@@ C

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 7, 2006

Wow! Just when you thought that almost everything looked bullish, the market went down hard. Judging from the volume, I feel that the decline was driven more by the nervous bulls than the aggressive bears. I suspect that bulls may see this as overdue technical correction of the extended overbought condition, will try to regroup tomorrow, and I am not sure that bears are ready to come out in force. However, today's big drop in NASDAQ has clearly signaled that the short-term top is close, if not already set, therefore, from now on, any rebound should be used as short set-up opportunities.

1. AAPL: L3 on bottom use 68.5 as stop. Because of the possible introduction of new products on Sept. 12 meeting, I feel that the "buy on rumors" mentality is not over yet.

@@ Grade: B

2. AMZN: S2 on top around 31.2, CS=32, IDS=32.3, IT=29.

@@ C

3. BRCM: S2 on top, CS=28.5, IDS=29.1, IT=26.2

@@ B

4. CHRW: S2 on top, CS=44.2, IDS=45, IT=42. It has closed below MA200=43.7 for the first time in over a year, a break down through 42 may trigger a quick drop.

@@ B

5. NTAP: CTT-ready, S1 on top around 34, CS=34.5, IDS=35, IT=32 (MA200=31.8).

@@ B

6. RBAK: S1 on rebound when it approaches 15, CS=15.2, IDS=15.8, IT=12.4.

@@ C

7. RIMM: L3 on bottom when it approaches 75, CS=74, IDS=MA200=73.7.

@@ C

8. SNDK: L3 on bottom use MA200=52 as stop reference, or S2 on top, CS=56.5, IDS=57.3

@@ B

9. TXN: keep eye on key support at 31 (both MA50 and MA200), if it closes below it with a bearish candle, it will at least test 29.

10. WLT: S1 any rebound (around 52.5) use MA200=53.7 as stop reference, IT=47.

@@ D

11. AMD: looks like MA50=23.6 will be breached tomorrow, should have some support around 22.5 or it will test 21.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Daily Calls -- Sept. 6, 2006

The market was very choppy today, but the bulls ended with another victory, and the market is further extended in the overbought condition. Technically, almost all indicators are bullish. But somehow I deeply suspect the low volume rally in overbought territory, and feel uncomfortable to chase the bulls at this stage. On the other hand, not much case can be made for bears either. This is probably the best time to be very cautious or just stay on the sideline.

1. AAPL: L2 on pullback use 69.68 as stop, IT=74. Solid break-out on good volume.

@@ Grade: B

2. AEOS: S3 on top use 40.5 as stop, IT=38. Be nimble when shorting a stock like this one.

@@ C

3. AMD: watch for key resistance at MA200=26.7, I suspect that the current bull run may test $30.

4. AMZN: may consider building short position when it enters 32.8-34.5 zone, CS=34.5, IDS=MA200=35.4, IT=29.

@@ C

5. BRCM: S2 on top when it approaches 29.75, stop=30.4, IT=26.3

@@ C

6. COST: S2 on top when it approaches 49.5, CS=50.05, IDS=MA200=51.7, IT=47.5

@@ C

7. EBAY: S2 on top when it approaches 30, CS=30, IDS=31, IT=27.

@@ C

8. JNPR: S2 on top when it approaches 16, CS=16, IDS=17, IT=14.

@@ C

9. MDT: S1 on top use 47.2 as stop, IT=45

@@ C

10. OCR: S2 on top use 46 as stop, IT=43.

@@ B

11. OS: watch key resistance around 54.

12. RBAK: a nice hammer, but the high volume decline with both MA50=17.6 and MA200=17 hang in overhead, I suspect that the rebound is shortable, CS=17.6, IDS=18.2

@@ A

13. SNDK: S2 on top, CS=59, IDS=59.7, IT=55 (especially if it breaks 57.5).

@@ A

Saturday, September 02, 2006

Weekly Trading Call -- Sept. 3 -- 7

Based on the charts, both DOW and SP500 look bullish from every angle, but NASDAQ is not as strong, especially the daily chart shows signs of CTT (counter-trend-trading) setup. The next significant resistance for NASDAQ is around 2235 where the June rebound peak and the bottom of Mid Jan, Feb and March converge. To me, if NASDAQ can break and close above that level, I will seriously reconsider my overall bearish standing. My strategy for next week is looking for short set-up on top, and to be safe, I will primarily focus on those have a clear down trend (6 month chart) and stay below MA200. Also, I want to use conservative sizes, and try to hold positions for at least 2-3 days, and not exit until the IT is reached or stopped out.

Abbreviations: IDS=intra-day stop, CS=closing stop, IT=initial target, S1=Strong short, S2=short, S3=weak short, L1=Strong long, L2=long, L3=weak long. MA=moving average. CTT-ready=counter-trend-trading criteria met,

1. ADI: CTT-ready on daily chart. S2 on top, IDS=31, CS=30.75, IT=29. Even if it closes above MA50=30.8, consider S on top use 33.5 as CS and MA200=34.2 as IDS.

@@ grade: B (right direction, no stop-out, IT nearly hit, 2-3% gain)

2. AMZN: consider S2 on top when it approaches 32.8 or more patiently when it approaches 34 to 34.8, IDS=MA200=35.4, CS=35, IT=29.8.

@@ grade: C (right direction, but trade was unlikely to be executed as it failed to reach the planned entry zone).

3. ANF: consider S2 on top when it enters 68-70 zone, IDS=71, CS=70, IT=63.5

@@ C

4. BRCM: S1 on top use 29.7 as CS, IDS=31, IT=26.2.

@@ A (excellent call, will not stop out, IT met and more, gain over 5%).

5. COST: S1 on top when it approaches 48.5, CS=49.6, IDS=MA200=MA50=51.7

@@ B.

6. EBAY: S2 on top when it enters 28.8-30 zone, CS=30, IDS=31, IT=25.5

@@ Grade D (overall direction incorrect, no stop-out, IT not met)

7. JNPR: S2 on top, CS=IDS=14.82, IT=14. OR more patiently, when it approaches 16.

@@ Grade E (overall direction incorrect, possible stop-out, IT not met)

8. MDT: S2 on top when it approaches 48, CS=48.4, IDS=MA200=50.3, IT=44.5

@@ C

9. MU: daily chart CTT-ready, no chase, CS=17.5, IDS=17.6, IT=16.8,

@@. F (overall direction wrong, stop out)

10. NVDA: CTT-ready, no chase, S2 on top around 28.5, CS=29, IDS=29.6, IT=26.

@@ B

11. OCR: S2 on top when it approaches MA50=46, CS=47, IDS=48, IT=43.

@@ A

12. RIMM: CTT ready, no chase, S2 on top near 83, CS=83, IDS=84.5, IT=79.

@@ A

13. SBUX: S3 on top when it approaches MA50=32.5, CS=MA200=33.1, IDS=34.5, IT=30.5

@@ C

14. SNDK: CTT-ready on daily chart, no chase, S3 on top use 59.71 as CS, IDS=60.01, IT=55.

@@ A

15. WLT: CTT-ready on daily chart, no chase, S3 around 55.5, CS=55.7, IDS=57, IT=50.

@@ A.